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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 3/1/2020

2020-01-03 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,629  4,324  150 -845 3,989 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,580  4,324  150 -894 3,992 
Costal Shandong 7,100  2,830  3,585  4,324  150 -889 3,956 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,740  3,533  4,324  150 -941 3,932 
Guangdong 7,380  2,700  3,535  4,324  150 -939 3,888 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,629  4,224  150 -745 3,863 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,580  4,224  150 -794 3,865 
Costal Shandong 7,100  2,830  3,585  4,224  150 -789 3,829 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,740  3,533  4,224  150 -841 3,805 
Guangdong 7,380  2,700  3,535  4,224  150 -839 3,762 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,699  3,309  150  240  2,616 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,649  3,309  150  190  2,619 
Costal Shandong 7,100  2,830  3,656  3,309  150  197  2,581 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,740  3,605  3,309  150  146  2,556 
Guangdong 7,380  2,700  3,609  3,309  150  150  2,510 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,560  3,329  150  81  2,818 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,510  3,329  150  31  2,820 
Costal Shandong 7,100  2,830  3,514  3,329  150  35  2,786 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,740  3,461  3,329  150  -18  2,763 
Guangdong 7,380  2,700  3,461  3,329  150  -18  2,722 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,594  3,500  150  -56  2,990 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,545  3,500  150  -105  2,993 
Costal Shandong 7,100  2,830  3,549  3,500  150  -101  2,958 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,740  3,497  3,500  150  -153  2,934 
Guangdong 7,380  2,700  3,498  3,500  150  -152  2,892 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,110  3,070  3,594  3,440  160  -6  3,078 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,960  2,920  3,450  3,560  160  -270  3,258 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,950  2,860  3,400  3,580  160  -340  3,285 
Boxing, Shandong 7,100  2,850  3,416  3,600  160  -344  3,280 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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