Today (Jan. 3), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean edged higher last night as China committed to purchase more American agricultural products and on the overflow effect brought by surging palm oil futures on BMD. But meal futures fluctuate at a narrow range on the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2690-2860yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2860, Shandong 2800-2810, Jiangsu 2745-2780, Dongguan 2690-2700, and Guangxi 2720-2730.) The cost of importing soybean is fueled by rising US soybean prices. Moreover, mid-to-downstream buyers are making replenishment for the festival at full swing. Large enterprises have come back to hog breeding due to handsome margins and as major production provinces have linked live hog slaughtering heads to local government performance examination. Hog stocks are expected to pick up sharply after May this year. In addition, laying fowl stocks are also rising. However, soybean imports will probably total 16.64 mln tonnes in December and January, and due to handsome crush margins, soybean crush will stay a high level of 2 mln tonnes in both next two weeks. Soybean meal stocks continue to increase, so that Shandong mills have got a relief in delivery and even begun to quicken it. In the meantime, the slaughtering rate of hog will increase in the run up to the Spring Festival, so hog breeding may be slack after the festival. Feed companies are not confident about the market so that they will just make small replenishment, which may limit price rises. Buyers are suggested to just replenish appropriately on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises slightly in price today, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,250-2,340 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,240; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,250). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid tensions between China and Canada, so rapeseed crush stays at a low level, and oil mills prop up prices. But the arrivals of soybean are in large quantity, which may reach up to 16.64 mln tonnes from December to January. More than that, soybean crush will keep at an extremely high level of 2 mln tonnes in the next two weeks, so the inventory of soybean meal also picks up again. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture in South China has been in an off season. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is squeezed in many ways and weak in going up, and short-term market is likely to keep fluctuating at a narrow range. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep steady today with certain negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10000-10300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10400-10600 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10900-11100 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11200-11500 yuan/tonne. Peru’s Ministry of Production announced a fishing ban of infinite duration, on sea area at 08 °00'S-15 °00 south 30 nautical miles off the Peruvian coast from Jan 1, 2020. Meanwhile, some traders have very little supply in hand. Bolstered by such bullish factors, traders are trying to hike prices. But the slack consumption on fishmeal has dented the demand and hampered the overall shipment, which is bearish to the market. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to keep its strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 91,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 37,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,200 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,510 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some fluctuations of 30-40 yuan/tonne today. Cottonseed is pricey, and some manufacturers in Shandong limit or stop production due to the inspection of environmental protection. Besides, some manufacturers have started to stock up goods ahead of the holiday downstream. These factors bolster cottonseed meal market. On the other hand, the demand is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal, and cottonseed meal price is depressed by a slack season of aquaculture in South China. Therefore, it is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market may fluctuate narrowly. Buyers had better not chase up price too high and just maintain appropriate inventory on the dips.