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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/1/2020

2020-01-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,625  4,262  150 -787 3,906 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,588  4,262  150 -825 3,904 
Costal Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,565  4,262  150 -847 3,872 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,262  150 -911 3,853 
Guangdong 7,380  2,680  3,519  4,262  150 -893 3,810 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,625  4,157  150 -682 3,773 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,588  4,157  150 -720 3,771 
Costal Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,565  4,157  150 -742 3,739 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,157  150 -806 3,720 
Guangdong 7,380  2,680  3,519  4,157  150 -788 3,677 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,695  3,275  150  270  2,568 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,657  3,275  150  232  2,566 
Costal Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,636  3,275  150  211  2,533 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,573  3,275  150  148  2,513 
Guangdong 7,380  2,680  3,593  3,275  150  168  2,467 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,555  3,297  150  108  2,773 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,518  3,297  150  71  2,771 
Costal Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,494  3,297  150  47  2,741 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,429  3,297  150  -18  2,723 
Guangdong 7,380  2,680  3,446  3,297  150  -1  2,682 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,590  3,500  150  -60  2,986 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,553  3,500  150  -97  2,983 
Costal Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,529  3,500  150  -121  2,953 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,465  3,500  150  -185  2,934 
Guangdong 7,380  2,680  3,483  3,500  150  -168  2,892 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,130  3,060  3,589  3,500  160  -71  3,149 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,980  2,910  3,445  3,620  160  -335  3,329 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,990  2,860  3,406  3,640  160  -394  3,352 
Boxing, Shandong 7,130  2,830  3,405  3,660  160  -415  3,349 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.