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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 7/1/2020

2020-01-07 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,618  4,266  150 -799 3,921 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,544  4,266  150 -872 3,914 
Costal Shandong 7,040  2,800  3,550  4,266  150 -866 3,897 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,266  150 -915 3,858 
Guangdong 7,380  2,690  3,527  4,266  150 -889 3,815 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,618  4,161  150 -694 3,788 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,544  4,161  150 -767 3,781 
Costal Shandong 7,040  2,800  3,550  4,161  150 -761 3,764 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,501  4,161  150 -810 3,725 
Guangdong 7,380  2,690  3,527  4,161  150 -784 3,682 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,687  3,278  150  259  2,582 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,614  3,278  150  186  2,575 
Costal Shandong 7,040  2,800  3,620  3,278  150  192  2,557 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,573  3,278  150  145  2,516 
Guangdong 7,380  2,690  3,601  3,278  150  173  2,471 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,548  3,300  150  98  2,786 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,475  3,300  150  25  2,779 
Costal Shandong 7,040  2,800  3,479  3,300  150  29  2,763 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,429  3,300  150  -21  2,727 
Guangdong 7,380  2,690  3,454  3,300  150  4  2,686 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,583  3,500  150  -67  2,995 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,509  3,500  150  -141  2,988 
Costal Shandong 7,040  2,800  3,514  3,500  150  -136  2,972 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,700  3,465  3,500  150  -185  2,934 
Guangdong 7,380  2,690  3,490  3,500  150  -160  2,892 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,090  3,060  3,582  3,500  160  -78  3,157 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,940  2,910  3,438  3,620  160  -342  3,337 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,970  2,810  3,363  3,640  160  -437  3,356 
Boxing, Shandong 7,050  2,800  3,368  3,660  160  -452  3,365 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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