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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 8/1/2020

2020-01-08 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,611  4,262  150 -801 3,904 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,552  4,262  150 -860 3,899 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,800  3,553  4,262  150 -859 3,887 
Jiangsu 7,280  2,700  3,516  4,262  150 -896 3,834 
Guangdong 7,400  2,680  3,523  4,262  150 -889 3,805 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,611  4,156  150 -695 3,769 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,552  4,156  150 -754 3,765 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,800  3,553  4,156  150 -753 3,753 
Jiangsu 7,280  2,700  3,516  4,156  150 -790 3,700 
Guangdong 7,400  2,680  3,523  4,156  150 -783 3,671 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,681  3,275  150  256  2,566 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,622  3,275  150  197  2,561 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,800  3,624  3,275  150  199  2,548 
Jiangsu 7,280  2,700  3,589  3,275  150  164  2,492 
Guangdong 7,400  2,680  3,597  3,275  150  172  2,462 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,541  3,296  150  95  2,769 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,482  3,296  150  36  2,765 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,800  3,483  3,296  150  37  2,753 
Jiangsu 7,280  2,700  3,443  3,296  150  -3  2,703 
Guangdong 7,400  2,680  3,449  3,296  150  3  2,676 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,576  3,500  150  -74  2,983 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,517  3,500  150  -133  2,979 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,800  3,518  3,500  150  -132  2,967 
Jiangsu 7,280  2,700  3,480  3,500  150  -170  2,915 
Guangdong 7,400  2,680  3,486  3,500  150  -164  2,887 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,140  3,040  3,574  3,500  160  -86  3,147 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,990  2,890  3,430  3,620  160  -350  3,327 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,010  2,810  3,370  3,640  160  -430  3,348 
Boxing, Shandong 7,120  2,800  3,379  3,660  160  -441  3,351 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.