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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 9/1/2020

2020-01-09 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,587  4,259  150 -822 3,890 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,559  4,259  150 -850 3,885 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,780  3,555  4,259  150 -854 3,861 
Jiangsu 7,300  2,690  3,512  4,259  150 -897 3,825 
Guangdong 7,430  2,660  3,513  4,259  150 -896 3,794 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,587  4,154  150 -717 3,757 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,559  4,154  150 -745 3,753 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,780  3,555  4,154  150 -749 3,728 
Jiangsu 7,300  2,690  3,512  4,154  150 -792 3,692 
Guangdong 7,430  2,660  3,513  4,154  150 -791 3,661 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,658  3,273  150  235  2,553 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,630  3,273  150  207  2,548 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,780  3,626  3,273  150  203  2,523 
Jiangsu 7,300  2,690  3,585  3,273  150  162  2,485 
Guangdong 7,430  2,660  3,587  3,273  150  164  2,452 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,517  3,295  150  72  2,759 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,489  3,295  150  44  2,754 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,780  3,483  3,295  150  38  2,732 
Jiangsu 7,300  2,690  3,439  3,295  150  -6  2,697 
Guangdong 7,430  2,660  3,439  3,295  150  -6  2,668 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,552  3,500  150  -98  2,974 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,524  3,500  150  -126  2,969 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,780  3,519  3,500  150  -131  2,946 
Jiangsu 7,300  2,690  3,476  3,500  150  -174  2,911 
Guangdong 7,430  2,660  3,476  3,500  150  -174  2,880 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,180  3,000  3,549  3,500  160  -111  3,139 
Dalian, Liaoning 7,030  2,850  3,405  3,620  160  -375  3,319 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,050  2,810  3,376  3,640  160  -424  3,340 
Boxing, Shandong 7,170  2,780  3,371  3,660  160  -449  3,341 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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