Today (Jan. 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: Donald Trump said that there was no American hurt in the Iranian attack and his government would not launch military retaliation. Instead, he would impose additional economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. Worries in the market over escalating conflicts were eased by the President’s softened tone. Meanwhile, China and the US were expected to sign the phase-1 trade deal next week. And the market forecast that the USDA report would cut down soybean production estimates and tighten the quarter-ending stocks. US soybean futures rose last night, but meal futures continue to move lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily drop by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at2660-2830yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2830, Shandong 2725-2760, Jiangsu2670-2740, Dongguan 2660-2670, and Guangxi2660-2680.) Soybean meal stocks have increased again, with some Guangdong mills suspending crush due to swelling stocks. On one hand, soybean crush are pegged at a very high level in recent two weeks on good margins. On the demand front, aquaculture in South China has been in slack season; feed enterprises make no bulk replenishment for a lack of confidence in the market, as hog breeding will enter into a slack state for a while after farmers hurry to ell hog ahead of the Spring Festival. Meanwhile, funds continue to buy up on strong oil futures. Therefore, soybean meal prices are under pressure. However, sow stocks are recovering at a quick pace and hog stocks are expected to increase significantly after May this year. And the demand from poultry has been high. These will help limit downside space. Overall, confronted with strong oil market and tepid demand, meal prices will have a weakening trend. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment. 

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a partial rise of 100 yuan today. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,700-11,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,200-11,700 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,900yuan/tonne. In addition to worsening fishing state, the Peruvian government has set a fishing ban for an infinite period in some seas areas. Meanwhile, some domestic traders now have limited supply and are awaiting for higher prices. But the demand for fishmeal is slack due to the end of aquaculture in winter and lower hog stocks. Overall, the market is predicted to have some upward potential in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 84,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 34,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,200 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,510 USD/tonne.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan/tonne at 2,210-2,360 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,240; Guangdong 2,210; Fujian 2,210). Soybean crush will stay at an extremely high level for the next two weeks due to better crush margin. But the demand from aquaculture in South China has entered into an off season, so inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rebounds again, leading a strong performance in oil market and profit taking by buying oils and selling meals. Thus, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors. In addition, the supply of rapeseed gets tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, which causes low operation rate. In this case, price declines of short-term rapeseed meal will still be limited. Buyers had better stand on the sideline factored in volatile prices.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with individual declines of 30 yuan/tonne today. The price of cottonseed is high, supporting the cottonseed meal market. But the poor demand is affected by narrow price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and downstream enterprises are not active in stocking up goods. In addition, meals on DCE today continue to fall back with low opens, and spot soybean meal keeps steady with declines of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Accordingly, cottonseed meal market is weighed down by these factors. Therefore, short-term market is predicted to go on fluctuating to adjust. Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.