Today (Jan. 9), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,260 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. China and the United States are expected to sign the trade deal next week, after which soybean imports from the US may get increased. Moreover, Brazil is forecast to harvest abundant soybean crop, as CONAB has raised the production estimates for 2019/20 by 1.13 mln tonnes to 122 mln tonnes. These will be negative to domestic market. But port traders now have low soybean supply in hand, which still supports the market. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably be little changed ahead of the Spring Festival. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable today. Cottonseed supply is less under the impact of low operation rate, for which the cottonseed market is bolstered. However, the crush margin of cottonseed is poor, and some inland enterprises discontinue the purchase under the impact of a round of rain and snow. In consequence, the trading volume is limited. Additionally, the freight from Xinjiang to inland falls. Therefore, the cottonseed market is weighed down. It is predicted that the short-term cottonseed moves sideways, so buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.

Oils: 

Summary: Donald Trump said that there was no American hurt in the Iranian attack and his government would not launch military retaliation. Instead, he would impose additional economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. Worries in the market over escalating conflicts were eased by the President’s softened tone. Meanwhile, China and the US were expected to sign the phase-1 trade deal next week. And the market forecast that the USDA report would cut down soybean production estimates and tighten the quarter-ending stocks. US soybean futures rose last night. As palm oil sharply rebounds on the BMD, oil futures also fluctuate to move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today with funds buying up on soybean oil and selling meal. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil steadily increase by 20 yuan/tonne, with some low-level purchases upon basis. India announced to ban imports of refined palm oil, so BMD futures fell yesterday. But palm oil production is expected to be cut by heavy rains and flood in Indonesia, and Malaysia plans to launch B20 biodiesel programme in February, and Indonesia is going to test B40 in April; hence, futures are bolstered to surge on the BMD today, and palm oil on DCE also post rises toward midday trading. Domestic mills now have 1.50 million tonnes of soybean oil in outstanding contracts, and some mills still have customers waiting for picking up goods. Therefore, the oil market is forecast to keep its strengthening trend. But soybean imports are in huge quantity and mills are keeping high operation rates. While soybean oil and palm oil stocks are increasing, buyers have almost completed replenishment ahead of the festival. Hence, the upward space and pace may get limited to some extent. Participants need to keep good balance of buying and selling.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 7180-7440 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial rise of 20yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders7180-7440, Rizhao traders 7200, Zhangjiagang traders 7400, and Guangzhou traders 7440). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6670-6750 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial rise of 20yuan/tonne.(Tianjin traders 6740-6750, up 20; Rizhao traders 6680-6690, flat; Zhangjiagang traders 6650, flat; Guangzhou traders 6670-6680, up 50; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil moves higher in price today, of which it settles up 50-70 yuan at 7980-8300yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 7980; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi 8300.)Rapeseed is in tight supply due to tensions between China and Canada, so domestic mills have to keep low operation rates. And rapeseed oil stocks thus stay at a low level, which helps support the market. But soybean imports are arriving at ports in huge quantity, and mills will keep soybean crush above 2 million tonnes in both next two weeks. And with the end of replenishment for the festival, both soybean oil and palm oil stocks are increasing, so buyers need to be cautious when chasing after high prices. Rapeseed oil market is predicted to have tepid trading in the short term.

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price stays stable with partial fluctuations of 20-200 yuan/tonne today. And factories offer inconsistently, so there is more room to negotiate prices. The price of cottonseed is still high. Besides, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange today swing higher, and spot soybean oil and palm oil stay stable with a rise of 20 yuan/tonne. Both are supporting cottonseed oil market. But on the other hand, the market is also dragged down by limited downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil and almost finished packing-oil stockpiling before the holiday. And short-term cottonseed oil market is predicted to fluctuate. Buyers can maintain appropriate inventory on the dips but not chase up prices too high.