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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 13/1/2020

2020-01-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,569  4,242  150 -823 3,862 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,558  4,242  150 -834 3,816 
Costal Shandong 7,180  2,760  3,545  4,242  150 -847 3,833 
Jiangsu 7,330  2,630  3,470  4,242  150 -922 3,797 
Guangdong 7,500  2,620  3,495  4,242  150 -897 3,756 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,569  4,137  150 -718 3,729 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,558  4,137  150 -729 3,683 
Costal Shandong 7,180  2,760  3,545  4,137  150 -742 3,700 
Jiangsu 7,330  2,630  3,470  4,137  150 -817 3,664 
Guangdong 7,500  2,620  3,495  4,137  150 -792 3,623 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,640  3,260  150  230  2,529 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,630  3,260  150  220  2,481 
Costal Shandong 7,180  2,760  3,616  3,260  150  206  2,499 
Jiangsu 7,330  2,630  3,544  3,260  150  134  2,461 
Guangdong 7,500  2,620  3,570  3,260  150  160  2,418 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,499  3,296  150  53  2,753 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,485  3,296  150  39  2,710 
Costal Shandong 7,180  2,760  3,473  3,296  150  27  2,726 
Jiangsu 7,330  2,630  3,397  3,296  150  -49  2,692 
Guangdong 7,500  2,620  3,420  3,296  150  -26  2,653 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,534  3,500  150  -116  2,967 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,522  3,500  150  -128  2,922 
Costal Shandong 7,180  2,760  3,509  3,500  150  -141  2,939 
Jiangsu 7,330  2,630  3,434  3,500  150  -216  2,904 
Guangdong 7,500  2,620  3,457  3,500  150  -193  2,864 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,210  2,970  3,530  3,500  160  -130  3,133 
Dalian, Liaoning 7,060  2,820  3,386  3,620  160  -394  3,313 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,250  2,760  3,368  3,640  160  -432  3,300 
Boxing, Shandong 7,200  2,730  3,336  3,660  160  -484  3,335 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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