Today (Jan. 13), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

 

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,260 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. China and the United States are to sign thephase-1 trade deal this week, after which soybean imports from the US may get increased. Moreover, the weather is no more a problem in South America now and Brazil is forecast to harvest abundant soybean crop, which are negative to domestic market. But port traders now have low soybean supply in hand, which still supports the market. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably be little changed ahead of the Spring Festival. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices stay stable with some fluctuations of 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg. Cottonseed supply is less under the impact of low operation rate and some oil mills stock up cottonseed to ensure the operation after Spring Festival, for which the cottonseed market is bolstered. However, the crush margin of cottonseed is poor, and some enterprises are wary of purchasing cottonseed with Spring Festival approaching. In consequence, the trading volume is limited. Additionally, the freight from Xinjiang to inland falls. Therefore, the cottonseed market is weighed down. It is predicted that the short-term cottonseed moves sideways, so buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.

Summary: US soybean futures rose last Friday as China and the US were expected to sign the phase-1 trade deal on Jan. 13th to 15th, in spite of a bearish USDA report. However, oil futures all fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. The signing of the trade deal is bearish to domestic market. In addition, mills boosted soybean crush by 2% to 2.04 mln tonnes last week with huge imports at ports. And palm oil futures dropped on the BMD as a report showed that the production only declined by 1.5% month on month in the first 10 days of this month, sharply lower than a decrease of 28.84% in the first 5 days. In the spot markets, soybean oil partially goes down by 10-80 yuan/tonne and palm oil down by 60-100 yuan/tonne, with tepid trading as buyers are on the sidelines. But it is difficult for mills to make delivery now as they have sold huge quantities of packing oils earlier, and fundamentals for palm oil in South Asia are still favorable; hence, this round of corrections is predicted to be a normal step in the upward trend, and the overall market is still strong. Buyers can wait at the moment as there may be sharp adjustments after consecutive gains on the DCE, and as China and the US are to sign a trade deal which will include details of China’s purchases of US agricultural products. 

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 7150-7430 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial decline of 10-80yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders 7150-7160, Rizhao traders 7270, Zhangjiagang traders 7430, and Guangzhou traders 7320-7350). 

Palm oil: RBD palm olein is mainly priced at 6670-6780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial decline of 60-100 yuan/tonne.(Tianjin traders 6760-6770, down 80; Rizhao traders 6780, down 60; Zhangjiagang traders 6770, flat; Guangzhou traders 6670, down 100; and Xiamen yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil edges higher in price today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan at 8000-8300yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian 8000; Guangdong yet offered; and Guangxi yet offered.)The tightening supply of rapeseed is mainly attributed to tensions between China and Canada. Rapeseed crush stays at a low level, and rapeseed oil stocks thus follow to decline by 7% to 297,000 tonnes last week. Therefore, rapeseed oil market is still strong. But soybean crush stays at a very high level with huge soybean imports at ports, and buyers have almost completed replenishment ahead of the festival. Rapeseed oil is in tepid trading under cautious sentiment in the market. Buyers with stocks can wait at the moment. 

Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil price partly stays stable and partly rises by 50-200 yuan/tonne today. And factories offer inconsistently, so there is more room to negotiate prices. Cottonseed is pricey and cottonseed oil is out of stock in most factories, supporting cottonseed oil market. But the downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited. Additionally, oils on DCE today fall back successively, and on the spot market, partial soybean oil down by 10-80 yuan/tonne and palm oil dip by 10-100 yuan/tonne. Thus, the price rises of cottonseed oil is restricted by these factors. And short-term cottonseed oil market is predicted to fluctuate. Bulk oils pare gains, so buyers can maintain a wait-and-see attitude.