Price: Imported soybean supply to distribution markets remains scanty at ports, and traders are in fair shipments. However, market participants are expecting China will boost purchases of US soybeans as the two countries are to sign the phase 1 trade deal. Moreover, razil is forecast to harvest abundant soybean crop, as CONAB raised the production estimates for 2019/20 by 1.13 mln tonnes to 122 mln tonnes and Agroconsult also boosted its estimates for 2019/20 by 300,000 tonnes to 124.3 mln tonnes. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady in the short term. 

Crush: The operation rates for soybean crush are still being pegged at a high level this week (Jan. 4-10). The crush at domestic mills totals 2,040,100 tonnes (meal 1,611,679 tonnes and oil 387,619 tonnes), up 39,600 tonnes or 1.97% from 2,000,500 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 58.22%, up 1.44 percentage points from 56.78% in the previous week. Soybean crush is predicted to fall to around 1.92 mln tonnes next week, and sharply to around 920,000 tonnes that following week as mills will close for the Spring Festival. 

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 24,931,100 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 594,785 tonnes or 2.49% from 25,525,885 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 2,897,457 tonnes, up 522,972 tonnes or 22.02% from 2,374,485 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to decline this week as the crush stays at a high level of 2.03 mln tonnes. In the week as of January 10th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,923,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 127,000 tonnes by 3.14% from 4,050,400 tonnes last week and down by 32.21% from 5,787,700 tonnes of the same period last year. As mills will gradually close for the Spring Festival, the stocks may have a smaller decline next week.

Import and its outlook: According to Cofeed, imported soybean is 33 cargoes with 2.085 mln tonnes this week, a total of 45 cargoes with 2.848 mln tonnes for January so far. The import is predicted to be 112 cargoes with 7.272 mln tonnes for January, 5 mln tonnes for February, 5.10 mln tonnes for March, 7.30 mln tonnes for April and 8.30 mln tonnes for May. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Jan. 5-10), domestic soybean meal prices fall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 60-120 yuan/tonne at 2,620-2,800 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks increase in coastal regions due to its growing output under high soybean crush, but the increase is small as some mills suspend production for swelling stocks and on quicker delivery ahead of the festival. In the week as of January 10th, the inventory in mills in domestic coastal regions totals 593,700 tonnes, up 4,300 tonnes by 0.73% from 589,400 tonnes last week yet down by 41.07% from 1,007,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks will probably decrease slightly next week.

Price: This week (Jan. 5-10), domestic soybean oil prices move higher for a sixth straight week. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 7230-7470 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly up by 150-270 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: In spite of a further rise in operation rates, soybean oil stocks sharply decline this week, as buyers have quickened the delivery and some mills even have difficulty making shipment. In the week as of Jan. 10th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 877,500 tonnes, down 47,000 tonnes by 5.08% from 924,500 tonnes last week, down 94,500 tonnes by 9.72% from 972,000 tonnes last month, and down 634,500 tonnes by 41.96% from 1,512,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,155,000 tonnes.