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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 14/1/2020

2020-01-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,546  4,209  150 -813 3,829 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,548  4,209  150 -811 3,786 
Costal Shandong 7,170  2,730  3,519  4,209  150 -840 3,793 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,630  3,446  4,209  150 -913 3,786 
Guangdong 7,450  2,620  3,485  4,209  150 -874 3,726 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,546  4,105  150 -709 3,698 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,548  4,105  150 -707 3,654 
Costal Shandong 7,170  2,730  3,519  4,105  150 -736 3,662 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,630  3,446  4,105  150 -809 3,654 
Guangdong 7,450  2,620  3,485  4,105  150 -770 3,594 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,616  3,234  150  232  2,506 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,620  3,234  150  236  2,461 
Costal Shandong 7,170  2,730  3,591  3,234  150  207  2,468 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,630  3,518  3,234  150  134  2,461 
Guangdong 7,450  2,620  3,560  3,234  150  176  2,397 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,476  3,270  150  56  2,730 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,476  3,270  150  56  2,689 
Costal Shandong 7,170  2,730  3,447  3,270  150  27  2,695 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,630  3,374  3,270  150  -46  2,689 
Guangdong 7,450  2,620  3,411  3,270  150  -9  2,632 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,511  3,500  150  -139  2,976 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,512  3,500  150  -138  2,934 
Costal Shandong 7,170  2,730  3,483  3,500  150  -167  2,941 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,630  3,410  3,500  150  -240  2,934 
Guangdong 7,450  2,620  3,448  3,500  150  -202  2,876 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,170  2,950  3,507  3,500  160  -153  3,141 
Dalian, Liaoning 7,020  2,800  3,363  3,620  160  -417  3,321 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,200  2,760  3,360  3,640  160  -440  3,310 
Boxing, Shandong 7,170  2,700  3,307  3,660  160  -513  3,341 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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