Today (Jan. 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures declined last night on technical selling and bumper crop production outlook in Brazil where dryness was lessened by favorable rains. Meal futures fractionally fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily drop by 10-20yuan/tonne with some low-level purchases for the festival. Specifically, the price settles at 2,600-2,770 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2770, Shandong 2665-2680, Jiangsu 2620-2650, Dongguan 2600-2610, and Guangxi 2620-2660.) While soybean crush stays at an extremely high level, the demand for soybean meal is low. For one thing, aquaculture is slack in winter; for another, hog breeding will also get less for some while after high slaughtering rates for the Spring Festival. In particular, the market is negative at present, so feed enterprises now make little replenishment ahead of the festival. As a result, soybean meal stocks rose again by 0.7% to 590,000 tonnes, and some mills in Guangdong and Guangxi have even suspended crush due to swelling meal stocks. Besides, the cost of importing soybeans is lowered down as CNY hits 6.9 after the U.S. Treasury Department dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator. And funds keep buying up on oil futures in consideration of the strong oil market, which also curbs meal prices. It is predicted that hog stocks will not increase very sharply until May this year at current pace. In the absence of high demand or without a sharp decline in oil prices, meal prices will probably keep its weak pattern. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,160-2,180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,180; Guangdong 2,160; Fujian 2,180). China will sign the phase one trade deal with U.S. this week, which may open DDGS imports after that. With huge imports of imported soybean arriving at ports and crush margins going better in recent two months, soybean crush remains extremely high. Furthermore, the demand from aquaculture has entered into an off season, leading continuous rally of inventory of soybean meal. Consequently, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors. However, rapeseed supply is tight amid tensions between China and Canada, causing lower operation rate in oil mills. Therefore, less rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas limit the price declines of short-term rapeseed meal. As the declining price still has yet to keep steady, buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a partial rise of 200 yuan today. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,700-11,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 11,000-11,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,600-11,800 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,800-12,100 yuan/tonne. The Peruvian government has released another 5-day fishing ban, and according to UCN, fishmeal may be out of supply for months in the futures. Therefore, most traders are bolstered to stall sales to hike prices. In addition, domestic fishmeal market is also boosted by low supply at present. But the demand for fishmeal is poor at present, which may limit its upward space. Overall, the market is predicted to go strengthening in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 69,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 33,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: it is quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,200 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,510 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal price stays stable with some declines of 20-50 yuan/tonne today. The price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal shows a kind of inversion, and downstream enterprises are not active in stocking up goods. In addition, meals on DCE today fall back slightly, and spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Accordingly, cottonseed meal price is depressed by these factors. But the price of cottonseed is high, and the operation rate has a downside with New Year approaching. Therefore, the price declines of cottonseed meal are limited, and short-term market is predicted to fluctuate weakly. Buyers can maintain a wait-and-see attitude.