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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 15/1/2020

2020-01-15 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,552  4,243  150 -841 3,884 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,545  4,243  150 -848 3,834 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,730  3,515  4,243  150 -878 3,841 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,640  3,454  4,243  150 -939 3,829 
Guangdong 7,450  2,630  3,493  4,243  150 -900 3,769 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,552  4,142  150 -740 3,757 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,545  4,142  150 -747 3,706 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,730  3,515  4,142  150 -777 3,713 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,640  3,454  4,142  150 -838 3,701 
Guangdong 7,450  2,630  3,493  4,142  150 -799 3,641 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,622  3,244  150  228  2,532 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,616  3,244  150  222  2,478 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,730  3,587  3,244  150  193  2,486 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,640  3,526  3,244  150  132  2,473 
Guangdong 7,450  2,630  3,568  3,244  150  174  2,410 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,482  3,288  150  44  2,764 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,473  3,288  150  35  2,716 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,730  3,444  3,288  150  6  2,723 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,640  3,382  3,288  150  -56  2,711 
Guangdong 7,450  2,630  3,419  3,288  150  -19  2,654 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,517  3,500  150  -133  2,988 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,509  3,500  150  -141  2,939 
Costal Shandong 7,150  2,730  3,479  3,500  150  -171  2,946 
Jiangsu 7,200  2,640  3,418  3,500  150  -232  2,934 
Guangdong 7,450  2,630  3,456  3,500  150  -194  2,876 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 7,120  2,970  3,515  3,500  160  -145  3,151 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,970  2,820  3,371  3,620  160  -409  3,331 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,180  2,760  3,357  3,640  160  -443  3,314 
Boxing, Shandong 7,150  2,720  3,320  3,660  160  -500  3,345 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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