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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 16/1/2020

2020-01-16 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,526  4,162  150 -787 3,816 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,529  4,162  150 -783 3,751 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,740  3,506  4,162  150 -806 3,760 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,450  4,162  150 -862 3,741 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,474  4,162  150 -838 3,691 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,526  4,057  150 -682 3,683 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,529  4,057  150 -678 3,618 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,740  3,506  4,057  150 -701 3,627 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,450  4,057  150 -757 3,608 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,474  4,057  150 -733 3,558 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,594  3,199  150  245  2,510 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,600  3,199  150  251  2,442 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,740  3,577  3,199  150  228  2,452 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,522  3,199  150  173  2,432 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,548  3,199  150  199  2,378 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,457  3,234  150  73  2,727 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,458  3,234  150  74  2,666 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,740  3,435  3,234  150  51  2,675 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,379  3,234  150  -5  2,657 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,401  3,234  150  17  2,609 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,491  3,500  150  -159  3,021 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,494  3,500  150  -156  2,958 
Costal Shandong 7,060  2,740  3,471  3,500  150  -179  2,967 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,414  3,500  150  -236  2,948 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,437  3,500  150  -213  2,899 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,980  2,970  3,493  3,500  160  -167  3,179 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,830  2,820  3,349  3,620  160  -431  3,359 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,760  3,344  3,640  160  -456  3,330 
Boxing, Shandong 7,070  2,710  3,299  3,660  160  -521  3,361 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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