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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 17/1/2020

2020-01-17 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,504  4,145  150 -791 3,811 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,537  4,145  150 -758 3,729 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,498  4,145  150 -797 3,748 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,450  4,145  150 -845 3,719 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,474  4,145  150 -821 3,669 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,504  4,041  150 -687 3,679 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,537  4,041  150 -654 3,597 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,498  4,041  150 -693 3,617 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,450  4,041  150 -741 3,588 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,474  4,041  150 -717 3,537 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,572  3,186  150  236  2,511 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,608  3,186  150  272  2,425 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,569  3,186  150  233  2,446 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,522  3,186  150  186  2,415 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,548  3,186  150  212  2,362 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,437  3,221  150  66  2,727 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,466  3,221  150  95  2,649 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,428  3,221  150  57  2,668 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,379  3,221  150  8  2,640 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,401  3,221  150  30  2,592 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,471  3,500  150  -180  3,037 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,502  3,500  150  -148  2,958 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,463  3,500  150  -187  2,976 
Jiangsu 7,140  2,650  3,414  3,500  150  -236  2,948 
Guangdong 7,350  2,630  3,437  3,500  150  -213  2,899 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,910  2,960  3,474  3,500  160  -186  3,193 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,760  2,810  3,330  3,620  160  -450  3,373 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,100  2,770  3,352  3,640  160  -448  3,330 
Boxing, Shandong 7,070  2,710  3,299  3,660  160  -521  3,361 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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