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Daily Review on Markets for Oilseeds and Oils in China--19/1/2020

2020-01-19 www.cofeed.com
Today (Jan. 19), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
 
Oilseeds:

Imported soybean: Imported soybeans steady today, among which Kazakhstan soybean is unchanged at 4,260 yuan/tonne and Canadian soybean at 4,180 yuan/tonne. Port traders now do not have much supply in hand. And market participants are staying on the sidelines due to China's pledge to buy U.S. farm goods based on "market conditions" during the Phase 1 trade deal signing ceremony on Wednesday. Moreover, the market now is quiet as traders are getting off the market for the Spring Festival. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably be little changed ahead of the Spring Festival. 

Cottonseed: Cottonseed price partially stays stable today, and most factories discontinue the purchase to consume inventory. Cottonseed supply is less under the impact of low operation rate, for which the cottonseed market is bolstered. However, the crush margin of cottonseed is poor, and oil mills halt the operation and have a holiday successively with Spring Festival approaching, resulting in tepid trading. Thus, the cottonseed market is weighed down. Moreover, both purchasing and selling are tepid with the forthcoming Spring Festival and thick festive air. It is predicted that cottonseed price will mainly keep steady before holiday, so buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.

Oils: 

Summary: US soybean futures rose on Friday night following sharp gains in corn futures, but oil futures still fell in after-hours trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on Friday. The DCE is closed on Sunday today. In the spot markets, soybean oil and palm oil are mostly not offered with a decline of 40 yuan/tonne. Distributors are getting off the market for the Lunar New Year, so the trading is little. Under the trade deal, China will purchase $40 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in two years, which is sharply higher than $24 billion in 2017. Moreover, palm oil market is weighed down by India’s boycott on imports of Malaysian palm oil products as well as rising palm oil export tariffs set by Malaysia. In addition, mills have crushed more than 2 million tonnes of soybeans in the week as of January 17 due to good margins, but they are in slow shipment as most buyers have completed replenishment for the festival. In the absence of fresh cues, the oil market is predicted to follow futures to fluctuate to adjust in the short term. Buyers can wait at the moment.

Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 6890-7120 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, a partial decline of 40 yuan/tonne and a partial rise of 10yuan/tonne. (Tianjin traders yet offered and 6890-6900 on Saturday, Rizhao traders 7000, Zhangjiagang traders yet offered, and Guangzhou traders yet offered). 

Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil prices are not offered today. US soybean closed with gains on Friday night, and oil exchanges are closed on Sunday today. Under the phase-1 trade deal, China will purchase $40 billion per year of U.S. agricultural products in two years, which is sharply higher than $24 billion in 2017. This is a bearish factor to domestic market. Moreover, due to huge arrivals at ports and good margins, mills have crushed more than 2 million tonnes of soybeans in the week as of January 17. In the market now, buyers have completed replenishment for the festival and most traders are leaving for the Lunar New Year. In the absence of purchases, rapeseed oil will have a inactive trend. But rapeseed supply is tightening amid a stalemate between China and Canada, leading to lower crush volume. In this case, rapeseed oil stocks have declined by 14% to 56,000 tonnes in coastal regions in the week ending January 17. The overall rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep strengthening, but may follow futures to fluctuate to adjust in the near term. Buyers can wait at the moment.

Cottonseed oil: Today, cottonseed oil prices partially stay stable and are stopped to quote for the most part. The purchasing price of cottonseed is high in earlier stage, and there are many enterprises that have halted the operation amid stronger festive air. Thus, the cottonseed oil market is supported. But the downstream demand for cottonseed oil as blending oil is limited. And today is Sunday, so the futures close. On the spot market, soybean oil and palm oil are mostly not offered, and individual quoted drop by 40 yuan/tonne. Therefore, these factors weigh down cottonseed oil market. Both buying and selling are tepid in the market, so cottonseed oil market is likely to see a little fluctuation and mainly keep steady before Spring Festival.

(USD $1=CNY 6.89)