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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 20/1/2020

2020-01-20 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,522  4,168  150 -796 3,838 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,549  4,168  150 -769 3,753 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,498  4,168  150 -820 3,777 
Jiangsu 7,100  2,650  3,443  4,168  150 -876 3,758 
Guangdong 7,320  2,630  3,469  4,168  150 -850 3,705 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,522  4,052  150 -680 3,691 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,549  4,052  150 -653 3,607 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,498  4,052  150 -704 3,631 
Jiangsu 7,100  2,650  3,443  4,052  150 -760 3,611 
Guangdong 7,320  2,630  3,469  4,052  150 -734 3,558 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,590  3,152  150  288  2,466 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,620  3,152  150  318  2,377 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,569  3,152  150  267  2,403 
Jiangsu 7,100  2,650  3,514  3,152  150  212  2,382 
Guangdong 7,320  2,630  3,542  3,152  150  240  2,327 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, Jan. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,454  3,099  150  205  2,570 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,478  3,099  150  229  2,490 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,428  3,099  150  179  2,513 
Jiangsu 7,100  2,650  3,372  3,099  150  123  2,495 
Guangdong 7,320  2,630  3,395  3,099  150  146  2,445 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,488  3,500  150  -162  3,035 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,513  3,500  150  -137  2,953 
Costal Shandong 7,020  2,740  3,463  3,500  150  -187  2,976 
Jiangsu 7,100  2,650  3,407  3,500  150  -243  2,958 
Guangdong 7,320  2,630  3,432  3,500  150  -218  2,906 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,920  2,980  3,491  3,500  160  -169  3,191 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,770  2,830  3,347  3,620  160  -433  3,371 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 7,120  2,780  3,363  3,640  160  -437  3,326 
Boxing, Shandong 7,050  2,700  3,288  3,660  160  -532  3,365 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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