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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--20/1/2020

2020-01-20 www.cofeed.com
Today (Jan. 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rose last Friday night following a sharp rise in corn futures, but soybean meal futures have weak upward impetus on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne with light trading ahead of the Lunar New Year. Specifically, the price settles at 2610-2770yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2770, Shandong 2685-2680, Jiangsu 2645-2680, Dongguan 2610-2640, and Guangxi 2640-2650.) China is expected to boost its imports of soybeans, pork and poultry meat from the U.S. after signing the trade deal. And the market of DDGS may also get opened again. Soybean crush remained at a high level of 2 million tonnes last week due to good margins. On the demand front, aquaculture has been slack in winter and hog stocks will not recover until the second quarter this year; hence, soybean meal will have lower demand after the festival and feed enterprises are not confident in the market. Soybean meal prices now are mainly constrained by its own weak demand. In the absence of improved demand, soybean meal prices will not pick up very much and may keep range-bound ahead of the festival. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices rise slightly, of which it settles up 10 yuan/tonne at 2,180-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,180, up 10; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,180). The supply of rapeseed is still tight amid tensions between China and Canada, so the operation rate is lower. In consequence, oil mills prop up prices due to less rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas. But the imports for DDGS which is alternative for meals are likely to be reopened after China signing phase one trade deal with US. Besides, the soybean crush still stays at an extremely high level of more than 2 mln tonnes this week thanks to the good crush margin. But demand from aquaculture has entered into an off season, and pig stocks will not significantly recover until the mid-to-late second quarter of 2020 at the earliest. Therefore, soybean meal prices are softer, which limits the price rises of rapeseed meal. Also, the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly before Spring Festival.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are not offered today, as most traders have been leaving the market for their Lunar New Year holidays. 

Cottonseed meal: Today, cottonseed meal prices partially stay stable and are stopped to quote for the most part. The purchasing price of cottonseed is high in earlier stage, and there are many enterprises that have halted the operation amid stronger festive air. Thus, the cottonseed meal market is supported. But cottonseed meal is also dragged down by the inversion of price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. Moreover, downstream enterprises have almost discontinued the purchase. Additionally, both buying and selling are tepid in the market, so cottonseed meal market is likely to see a little fluctuation and mainly keep steady before Spring Festival.

(USD $1=CNY 6.87)