According to Cofeed, on the week as of January 17th, details of soybean stocks and soybean meal stocks and outstanding contracts in coastal regions of China are as follows:

Soybean: Soybean stocks go on falling this week, for its crush still stays at a high level above 2 million tonnes in spite of a slight decline in operation rates. In the week as of January 17th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,527,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 396,200 tonnes by 10.10% from 3,923,400 tonnes last week and down by 37.17% from 5,614,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will decline drastically in the next two weeks as mills will suspend production for the festival, to 920,000 tonnes next week and to only 20,000 tonnes that week just in the Lunar New Year. Therefore, soybean stocks may pick up slightly after the festival. 

Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

Soybean meal: Soybean meal stocks sharply decline this week. It is the last week for replenishment, and feed enterprises are buying en basse as they have postponed the schedule for previous price declines, so that the trading volume is far higher than that of last week. In the week ended Jan 17, soybean meal trading totals 1,097,200 tonnes, a weekly increase of 70.52% from 643,400 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, the stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 469,300 tonnes, down 124,400 tonnes by 20.95% from 593,700 tonnes last week and down by 44.36% from 843,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. With low soybean crush in the next two weeks, soybean meal stocks will probably stay at a low level next week. 

Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

Outstanding contracts: The amount of soybean meal in outstanding contracts significantly decreases this week. In the week as of January 17th, outstanding contracts in mills in domestic coastal regions hold 2,054,600 tonnes unfinished, down 589,200 tonnes by 22.29% from 2,643,800 tonnes last week and down by 32.44% from 3,041,200 tonnes of the same period last year.

Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years