Price: Domestic distribution market is bolstered by scanty supply at ports. But the market turns quiet now as participants are getting off for the Lunar New Year. Moreover, China will ramp up soybean imports from the U.S. under the phase-1 trade deal. And Agrural raised its estimates for 2019/20 by 1.70 million tonnes to 123.9 mln tonnes. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady before the Lunar New Year. 

Crush: This week (Jan. 11-17), operation rates for soybean crush still stay at a very high level in spite of a slight decline, as mills are working at full swine due to good margins and continued replenishment for the Lunar New Year. The crush at domestic mills totals 2,001,700 tonnes (meal 1,581,343 tonnes and oil 380,323 tonnes), down 38,400 tonnes or 1.8% from 2,040,100 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 57.12%, down 1.1 percentage points from 58.22% in the previous week. Soybean crush will decline drastically in the next two weeks as mills will suspend for the festival, to 920,000 tonnes next week and to only 20,000 tonnes that week just in the Lunar New Year. 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 5.82 mln tonnes in January at current utilization rate, below 8.10 mln tonnes in the previous month and also below 712 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year (The last Lunar New Year was in February, 2019).  

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 26,932,800 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 282,485 tonnes or 1.03% from 27,215,285 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 4,88,2500 tonnes, up 818,615 tonnes or 20.14% from 4,063,885 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Soybean stocks go on falling this week, for its crush still stays at a high level above 2 million tonnes in spite of a slight decline in operation rates. In the week as of January 17th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,527,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 396,200 tonnes by 10.10% from 3,923,400 tonnes last week and down by 37.17% from 5,614,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean crush will decline drastically in the next two weeks as mills will suspend production for the festival, to 920,000 tonnes next week and to only 20,000 tonnes that week just in the Lunar New Year. Therefore, soybean stocks may pick up slightly after the festival. 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 28 cargoes with 1.814 million tonnes this week, a total of 73 cargoes with 4.662 million tonnes for January so far. The import is predicted to be 112 cargoes with 7.272 million tonnes for January, 5 million tonnes for February, 5.10 million tonnes for March, 7.30 million tonnes for April and 8.30 mln tonnes for May. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Jan. 13-17), domestic soybean meal prices rise and then fall. As of this Friday, the price settles down 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,610-2,770 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks sharply decline this week. It is the last week for replenishment, and feed enterprises are buying en basse as they have postponed the schedule for previous price declines, so that the trading volume is far higher than that of last week. In the week ended Jan 17, soybean meal trading totals 1,097,200 tonnes, a weekly increase of 70.52% from 643,400 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, the stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 469,300 tonnes, down 124,400 tonnes by 20.95% from 593,700 tonnes last week and down by 44.36% from 843,500 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. With low soybean crush in the next two weeks, soybean meal stocks will probably stay at a low level next week. 

Price: This week (Jan. 13-17), domestic soybean oil prices snap off its six-week upward trend. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,930-7,120 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, down by 150-340 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks go on declining this week. In the week as of Jan. 17th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 850,900 tonnes, down 26,600 tonnes by 3.03% from 877,500 tonnes last week, down 81,100 tonnes by 8.7% from 932,000 tonnes last month, and down 572,100 tonnes by 40.2% from 1,423,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,119,300 tonnes.