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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--3/2/2020

2020-02-03 www.cofeed.com
Today (Feb. 3), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The spread of novel coronavirus outbreak in China could slow down its economic growth. Economists with Bloomberg expected the growth could decline to 4.5% in the fist quarter and affect that of other countries. US soybean prices were weighed down by a lower demand outlook for soybean imports in China. US soybean futures price ended sharply lower by 37 cents at 872,5 cents last Friday compared to that before the Lunar New Year holidays, and soybean meal futures also drop significantly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices remain resilient and decline slightly by 20-30 yuan/tonne with light trading, as most mills have halted production. Specifically, the price settles at 2590-2730 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2730, Shandong 2685-2750, Jiangsu 2640-2650, Dongguan 2590-2610, and Guangxi 2630-2650.) Stock and futures markets slumped in China as participants are concerned about the spread of the epidemic outbreak, and some commodities even opened below the trading limit. Meanwhile, a majority of businesses have not resumed work, and goods are only available in nearby mills or provinces because logistics also get interrupted by the virus outbreak. The catering industry has been tremendously shocked by the epidemic situation, thus cutting the demand for meat. Therefore, feed enterprises have weak confidence in the market amid a gloomy outlook in demand for soybean meal. But soybean meal stocks may be declining as there is also a delay in soybean crush, and oil prices have plunged due to a heavier shock from the coronavirus, so meal spot prices are resilient. Amid concerns over the epidemic outbreak, soybean meal price is predicted to take a downtrend overall, and buyers are suggested to stay on the sidelines.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal price declines today, of which it settles down 20-70 yuan/tonne at 2,120-2,160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,120, down 70; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,160). Domestic new coronavirus epidemic aggravates dramatically, triggering panic mood on the market. As a result, domestic stocks and futures market broadly goes down, and some varieties reach the decline limit after opening. Meanwhile, the demand for meals is also hard hit by the huge hurt in catering industry. Therefore, all these factors depress rapeseed meal price. It is predicted that the overall price still be in a weak trend before a detente in the mood of panic. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,000 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,100-12,300 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,000-13,100 yuan/tonne. Most traders have not returned to the market as the holiday is extended under the severe impact of the coronavirus, so there is no prevailing price in the market or actual deal at ports. But traders are also waiting for higher prices as the market sentiment is affected by the end of fish catches in Peru. Overall, fishmeal prices will probably keep stable in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 58,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: All quoted lower by 50 USD/tonne at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mostly not offered today, and individual rise by 50 yuan/tonne. And most enterprises have yet to resume the operation. So far, the supply of cottonseed meal is very limited as most enterprises have not returned to work yet on account of the pneumonia outbreak, so several enterprises raise up the offer. But the futures of oils and meals plunged after the Lunar New Year affected by panic mood amid the new coronavirus pneumonia. Moreover, meal products are in tight supply, and the freight also goes up due to the require for a traffic permit. Thus, the price declines of spot goods are far less than futures, and soybean meal prices in coastal areas are 2,590-2,730 yuan/tonne with a decrease of 20-30 yuan/tonne today. Besides, the catering industry has been greatly hit by the epidemic, thereby affecting the demand for meats. And the demand for cottonseed meal is also delicate. Accordingly, all these factors are negative for cottonseed meal market. With the crush of cottonseed operating successively in the later period, cottonseed meal price is likely to fall back.

(USD $1=CNY 6.93)