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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 5/2/2020

2020-02-05 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,465  4,027  150 -712 3,741 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,491  4,027  150 -686 3,688 
Costal Shandong 6,720  2,800  3,489  4,027  150 -688 3,671 
Jiangsu 6,560  2,680  3,364  4,027  150 -813 3,710 
Guangdong 6,630  2,640  3,345  4,027  150 -832 3,693 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,465  3,909  150 -594 3,592 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,491  3,909  150 -568 3,539 
Costal Shandong 6,720  2,800  3,489  3,909  150 -570 3,522 
Jiangsu 6,560  2,680  3,364  3,909  150 -695 3,560 
Guangdong 6,630  2,640  3,345  3,909  150 -714 3,543 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,530  3,046  150  334  2,418 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,558  3,046  150  362  2,362 
Costal Shandong 6,720  2,800  3,556  3,046  150  360  2,344 
Jiangsu 6,560  2,680  3,429  3,046  150  233  2,385 
Guangdong 6,630  2,640  3,412  3,046  150  216  2,367 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,401  2,986  150  265  2,505 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,425  2,986  150  289  2,454 
Costal Shandong 6,720  2,800  3,422  2,986  150  286  2,438 
Jiangsu 6,560  2,680  3,298  2,986  150  162  2,475 
Guangdong 6,630  2,640  3,279  2,986  150  143  2,459 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,433  3,500  150  -217  3,114 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,458  3,500  150  -192  3,063 
Costal Shandong 6,720  2,800  3,455  3,500  150  -195  3,047 
Jiangsu 6,560  2,680  3,331  3,500  150  -319  3,084 
Guangdong 6,630  2,640  3,312  3,500  150  -338  3,068 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,580  2,990  3,445  3,500  160  -215  3,259 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,430  2,840  3,301  3,620  160  -479  3,439 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,650  2,820  3,320  3,640  160  -480  3,420 
Boxing, Shandong 6,630  2,810  3,309  3,660  160  -511  3,449 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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