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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 6/2/2020

2020-02-06 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,463  4,027  150 -714 3,724 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,489  4,027  150 -688 3,671 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,504  4,027  150 -673 3,652 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,375  4,027  150 -802 3,695 
Guangdong 6,700  2,640  3,359  4,027  150 -818 3,676 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,463  3,909  150 -596 3,575 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,489  3,909  150 -570 3,522 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,504  3,909  150 -555 3,503 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,375  3,909  150 -684 3,546 
Guangdong 6,700  2,640  3,359  3,909  150 -700 3,527 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,528  3,046  150  332  2,400 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,556  3,046  150  360  2,344 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,572  3,046  150  376  2,324 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,441  3,046  150  245  2,370 
Guangdong 6,700  2,640  3,426  3,046  150  230  2,349 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,398  2,986  150  262  2,489 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,422  2,986  150  286  2,438 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,436  2,986  150  300  2,420 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,309  2,986  150  173  2,461 
Guangdong 6,700  2,640  3,292  2,986  150  156  2,443 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,430  3,500  150  -220  3,098 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,455  3,500  150  -195  3,047 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,470  3,500  150  -180  3,028 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,342  3,500  150  -308  3,070 
Guangdong 6,700  2,640  3,325  3,500  150  -325  3,051 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,650  2,970  3,440  3,500  160  -220  3,245 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,500  2,820  3,296  3,620  160  -484  3,425 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,800  3,315  3,640  160  -485  3,406 
Boxing, Shandong 6,690  2,810  3,318  3,660  160  -502  3,437 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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