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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 7/2/2020

2020-02-07 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,449  3,928  150 -629 3,606 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,473  3,928  150 -605 3,546 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,504  3,928  150 -574 3,527 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,375  3,928  150 -703 3,570 
Guangdong 6,670  2,640  3,353  3,928  150 -725 3,558 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,449  3,842  150 -543 3,497 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,473  3,842  150 -519 3,437 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,504  3,842  150 -488 3,418 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,375  3,842  150 -617 3,461 
Guangdong 6,670  2,640  3,353  3,842  150 -639 3,449 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,514  3,077  150  287  2,447 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,540  3,077  150  313  2,384 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,572  3,077  150  345  2,363 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,441  3,077  150  214  2,409 
Guangdong 6,670  2,640  3,420  3,077  150  193  2,396 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,385  3,048  150  187  2,574 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,406  3,048  150  208  2,517 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,436  3,048  150  238  2,499 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,309  3,048  150  111  2,540 
Guangdong 6,670  2,640  3,286  3,048  150  88  2,528 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,417  3,500  150  -233  3,105 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,439  3,500  150  -211  3,047 
Costal Shandong 6,800  2,800  3,470  3,500  150  -180  3,028 
Jiangsu 6,620  2,680  3,342  3,500  150  -308  3,070 
Guangdong 6,670  2,640  3,320  3,500  150  -330  3,058 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 6,620  2,960  3,427  3,500  160  -233  3,251 
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470  2,810  3,283  3,620  160  -497  3,431 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,720  2,780  3,299  3,640  160  -501  3,406 
Boxing, Shandong 6,690  2,800  3,310  3,660  160  -510  3,437 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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