Today (Feb. 7), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures continued to close higher last night, bolstered by technical buying and improved exports, and meal futures also inch higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2630-2820 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2820, Shandong 2750-2780, Jiangsu 2690-2700, Dongguan 2630-2650, and Guangxi 2680-2700.) The majority of oil mills have put off the plan for production under the critical epidemic, so soybean crush may go below the expected this week. Meanwhile, the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads, which thus interrupts the logistics and lifts the transportation cost. Mid-to-downstream buyers have been rushing to make replenishment due to low stocks in hand, and many mills now can not offer any spot goods. Soybean meal stocks have declined by 24% from the week before the holiday and by 44% year on year, to 356,000 tonnes as of February 3rd. Therefore, the price is now propped up by tight supply in the market. But due to good crush margins on the DCE, large oil mills in China have already purchased at least 1 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans. In addition, it will take time for China to take overall control of the epidemic of the novel coronavirus, which has heavily hit the catering services and cut the demand for meat products, so the prospect in demand for soybean meal stays dismal. As local governments are working on stabilizing production, oil mills will gradually resume work; hence, soybean meal prices will have a volatile trend. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and remain cautious in chasing after high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices are basically stable today, of which it settles at 2,170-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,170, flat; Guangdong 2,220; Fujian 2,200, flat). The rapeseed is in tight supply amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas are smaller under the low operation rate, then oil mills prop up prices. But China has bought more than 1 mln tonnes of Brazilian soybean over this week due to the good crush margin of soybean futures. Besides, China cuts the import tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which may lead an increase of imports for U.S. soybeans and meats in the late period. Consequently, it is bearish for domestic market. On the other hand, it takes time to full control the grim epidemic. Even more, the demand for meals is still weak due to a slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors. It is predicted that the overall price still be steady with a weak trend before a detente in the epidemic. Buyers can stay on the sideline.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial rise of 200 yuan/tonne today. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,100-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,000-13,300 yuan/tonne. Market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru, and traders now have little supply and stocks are huge only in some main ports; hence, traders are looking to lift the prices. However, subject to the spread of the novel coronavirus, China has extended the Lunar New Year holidays, so that many traders have not resumed work. There is no prevailing prices available in the fishmeal market, and the trading is quite lukewarm under slow logistics. Overall, fishmeal prices will probably keep stable with certain rises in the near term. The prevailing price is expected to be available after Feb 10. Stocks at port: Huangpu 58,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and not produced today, and individual prices are stable. Most oil mills have yet to start the production due to the pneumonia epidemic, which limits the supply of cottonseed meal. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Besides, meals on DCE rise slightly today, and spot soybean meal steadily increases by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market remains strong under the support. But the price gap between soybean meal and cottonseed meal sees an inversion, limiting the demand for cottonseed meal. Meanwhile, it is unfavorable for factories to delivery goods on account of logistics constraints, control of road traffic and population movements affected by the epidemic. With the crush of cottonseed operating successively in the later period, cottonseed meal price is likely to have a contingent risk of moderate falls.