China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 5, 2020)

2020-02-07 www.cofeed.com

I.National stocks

Due to low temperature in winter, the terminal demand for palm oil is badly curbed. And domestic edible palm oil stock continues to go up during Spring Festival holiday. This week (as of Jan. 31), edible palm oil stock totals 875,000 tonnes at domestic ports, up 4.3% from 839,100 tonnes before holiday; up 136,100 tonnes or 18.42% from 738,900 tonnes the same period last month; up 204,300 tonnes or 30.5% from 670,700 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 141,000 tonnes, down 2,900 tonnes or 2.01% from 143,900 tonnes before holiday.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W5	W3	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W5	W3	Change
Tianjin Port	14.75	13.5	1.25	52.06%	18.95%	1.2	1.4	-0.2
Hebei	0.75	0.27	0.48	10.29%	650.00%	0	0.03	-0.03
Shandong Port	3.75	3.82	-0.07	21.75%	40.45%	1.7	1.8	-0.1
East China	31	30.98	0.02	5.26%	69.12%	8.6	8.7	-0.1
Guangdong	29.8	29.3	0.5	25.47%	5.40%	2.2	2.25	-0.05
Guangxi	3.45	3.24	0.21	-20.30%	55.40%	0.4	0.21	0.19
Fujian	4	2.8	1.2	37.90%	29.03%	0	0	0
Total：	87.5	83.91	3.59	18.42%	30.46%	14.1	14.39	-0.29

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for January this week is 420,000-470,000 tonnes and flat from before holiday (RBD palm olein 300,000-350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for February is steaily at 320,000 tonnes compared to before holiday (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes); that for March is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

II.Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2020/1/13	Feb.2020	825	6831	6384	-447
2020/1/13	Mar.2020	825	6831	6384	-447
2020/1/13	Apr.2020	800	6627	6384	-243
2020/1/13	May.2020	800	6627	6384	-243
2020/1/13	Jun.2020	800	6627	6032	-595
2020/1/14	Feb.2020	810	6683	6222	-461
2020/1/14	Mar.2020	815	6723	6222	-501
2020/1/15	Feb.2020	810	6702	6164	-538
2020/1/15	Mar.2020	810	6702	6164	-538
2020/1/15	Apr.2020	785	6497	6164	-333
2020/1/15	May.2020	785	6497	6164	-333
2020/1/15	Jun.2020	785	6497	5836	-661
2020/1/16	Feb.2020	787.5	6509	6104	-405
2020/1/16	Mar.2020	792.5	6549	6104	-445
2020/1/16	Apr.2020	765	6325	6104	-221
2020/1/16	May.2020	765	6325	6104	-221
2020/1/16	Jun.2020	7650	6325	5796	-529
2020/1/17	Mar.2020	790	6529	6126	-403

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