Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 10/2/2020

2020-02-10 www.cofeed.com

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,506	3,943	150	-587	3,623
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,520	3,943	150	-573	3,565
Costal Shandong	6,770	2,870	3,554	3,943	150	-539	3,553
Jiangsu	6,640	2,720	3,410	3,943	150	-683	3,584
Guangdong	6,640	2,650	3,355	3,943	150	-738	3,584

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,506	3,857	150	-501	3,514
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,520	3,857	150	-487	3,456
Costal Shandong	6,770	2,870	3,554	3,857	150	-453	3,444
Jiangsu	6,640	2,720	3,410	3,857	150	-597	3,475
Guangdong	6,640	2,650	3,355	3,857	150	-652	3,475

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,571	3,089	150	332	2,459
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,588	3,089	150	349	2,399
Costal Shandong	6,770	2,870	3,621	3,089	150	382	2,386
Jiangsu	6,640	2,720	3,477	3,089	150	238	2,419
Guangdong	6,640	2,650	3,422	3,089	150	183	2,419

Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,442	3,059	150	233	2,586
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,453	3,059	150	244	2,531
Costal Shandong	6,770	2,870	3,486	3,059	150	277	2,519
Jiangsu	6,640	2,720	3,344	3,059	150	135	2,549
Guangdong	6,640	2,650	3,289	3,059	150	80	2,549

Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,474	3,500	150	-176	3,103
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,487	3,500	150	-163	3,047
Costal Shandong	6,770	2,870	3,520	3,500	150	-130	3,035
Jiangsu	6,640	2,720	3,377	3,500	150	-273	3,065
Guangdong	6,640	2,650	3,322	3,500	150	-328	3,065

Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region	Income			Expenditure		Margin	Soybean Break-even Price
	Soybean Oil	Soybean Meal	Total	Soybean Cost	Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang	6,630	3,030	3,485	3,500	160	-175	3,249
Dalian, Liaoning	6,480	2,880	3,341	3,620	160	-439	3,429
Qinhuangdao, Hebei	6,720	2,840	3,347	3,640	160	-453	3,406
Boxing, Shandong	6,780	2,830	3,349	3,660	160	-471	3,419
Remarks: 1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory. 2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%; Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%. 3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price. 4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

Print Close