Today (Feb. 10), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures ended higher last Friday, and meal futures also edge up on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot market, soybean meal stands above 2,900 yuan/tonne in north China and Shandong, so there are just some low-level purchases but tepid trading at high levels. Specifically, the price settles at 2640-2850 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2820-2905, Jiangsu 2720-2800, Dongguan 2640-2650, and Guangxi 2690-2700.) The cost of transportation is lifted by slow logistics, as the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads. Moreover, there is a shortage of manpower so that mills are unable to resume work. In this case, soybean meal stocks are low and mills are setting limited quantity for delivery, thus sending the prices to move higher. But it will take time to totally control the novel coronavirus pneumonia, and local governments have forbidden the trading of live poultry. The epidemic is most severe in Hubei province, where the inbound of feed and the outbound of meat products remain a problem. Besides, hog production capacity have not resumed after the Lunar New Year, and the demand for meat is lower as the catering industry is hit hard by the epidemic, so the hog production will resume at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the demand from aquaculture is slack in cold weather. All these will be worsening the demand for meal products. Moreover, mills will hugely pick up operation rates in the coming two weeks. Therefore, soybean meal market is predicted to be negative in the middle term. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will keep the strengthening trend due to supply tensions. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices rise today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,200-2,250 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,220; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,230, up 30). The operation rate of rapeseed is low owing to the tight supply amid continuous tensions between China and Canada and the pneumonia epidemic. Last week, rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas remain at 15,000 tonne flat from the previous week but down by 11% from the same period last year. Accordingly, oil mills prop up prices. But China continues to purchase South American soybean due to the good crush margin of its futures. On the other hand, being affected by the spread of epidemic, local governments forbid the live poultry trading and demand for meats falls in a huge hurt of catering industry. Even more, the demand for meals is still weak due to a slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, the upward space of rapeseed meal price is limited. And the prices may be strong under a tight supply in a short term but the mid-term trend would be not optimistic.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today with some negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,100-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,000-13,300 yuan/tonne. A majority of factories have not resumed work under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, and there is no prevailing prices available in the market. In the meantime, the trading is very little at ports under the sluggish logistics. However, market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru, and traders now have little supply and stocks are huge only in some main ports; hence, traders are looking to lift the prices.Overall, fishmeal prices will probably keep stable in the near term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and partially up by 30-100 yuan/tonne. Most oil mills delay the production due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, which limits the supply of cottonseed meal. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Besides, meals on DCE rise slightly today, and spot soybean meal is up 20-40 yuan/tonne. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market goes strongly under the boost. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and it. Meanwhile, local governments forbid the live poultry trading affected by the epidemic. In addition, the hog production capacity has not recovered yet and the recovery process slows down, and the demand for meats falls as catering industry is under a huge impact amid the epidemic. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price is not optimistic but may be strong under a tight supply.