Price: The price for imported soybeans is not available in China under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. Soybean stocks are low before the Lunar New Year holidays, and now the transportation is lifted by sluggish logistics. However, FCStone has raised its estimates by 1.9% from January to 124 mln tonnes for Brazilian soybeans in 2019/20. And Chinese importers at least bought 21-25 cargoes from Brazil last week. Overall, the market for imported soybeans will probably keep steady next week. 

Crush: Following a rise in operation rates this week (Feb. 1-7), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 787,500 tonnes (meal 622,125 tonnes and oil 149,625 tonnes), up 734,800 tonnes or 1394% from 52,700 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 22.63%, up 21.13 percentage points from 1.50% in the previous week. With a further quick increase in operation rares, soybean crush is predicted to be around 1.50 mln tonnes next week and to 1.75 mln tonnes that following week.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 28,691,114 tonnes in the crushing year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 1,750,671 tonnes or 0.57% from 30,441,785 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 6,664,700 tonnes, down 633,485 tonnes or 8.68% from 72,981,85 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to increase this week as mills have just crushed 787,500 tonnes this week In the week as of February 7th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 4,811,400 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 821,000 tonnes by 20.57% from 3,990,400 tonnes last week yet down by 12.10% from 5,474,100 tonnes of the same period last year. As soybean crush is predicted to be around 1.50 mln tonnes next week and 1.75 mln tonnes that following week, the stocks will probably slow down the growth. 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 11 cargoes with 722,000 tonnes this week, a total of 11 cargoes with 722,000 tonnes for February so far. The import is predicted to be 76 cargoes with 4.967 million tonnes for February, 5.10 million tonnes for March, 7.50 million tonnes for April, 8.10 mln tonnes for May and 8.70 mln tonnes for June. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Feb 3-7), domestic soybean meal prices snap off the decline to rebound. As of this Friday, the price settles up 20-120 yuan/tonne at 2,630-2,820 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Mid-to-downstream buyers are rushing to make replenishment this week on worry over the spread of the epidemic, as they stocked up very little for the Lunar New Year holidays previously, sending the trading to be better than that before the festival. In the week ended February 7th, the trading in soybean meal market has totaled 868,840 tonnes, a weekly increase of 551.30% or 133,400 tonnes from Week 4. And soybean crush remains at a low level, so soybean meal stocks continue to reduce. In the week ending February 7th, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 323,100 tonnes, down 32,900 tonnes by 9.24% from 356,000 tonnes last week and down by 50.20% from 648,800 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stock may increase with a sharp rise in soybean crush, but it will stay at a low level overall by the end of this month. 

Price: This week (Feb 3-7), domestic soybean oil prices first decline and then move higher, with some losses overall. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,470-6,720 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly down by 380-460 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: In the week ending February 7th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 896,900 tonnes, up 48,800 tonnes by 5.75% from 848,100 tonnes last week, down 6,300 tonnes by 0.7% from 903,200 tonnes last month, and down 413,400 tonnes by 31.55% from 1,310,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,099,800 tonnes.