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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 11/2/2020

2020-02-11 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,497 3,941 150 -594 3,622
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,475 3,941 150 -616 3,639
Costal Shandong 6,710 2,850 3,526 3,941 150 -565 3,565
Jiangsu 6,570 2,720 3,397 3,941 150 -694 3,598
Guangdong 6,590 2,640 3,338 3,941 150 -753 3,594
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,497 3,836 150 -489 3,489
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,475 3,836 150 -511 3,506
Costal Shandong 6,710 2,850 3,526 3,836 150 -460 3,432
Jiangsu 6,570 2,720 3,397 3,836 150 -589 3,465
Guangdong 6,590 2,640 3,338 3,836 150 -648 3,461
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,561 3,084 150 327 2,456
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,539 3,084 150 305 2,473
Costal Shandong 6,710 2,850 3,594 3,084 150 360 2,395
Jiangsu 6,570 2,720 3,463 3,084 150 229 2,430
Guangdong 6,590 2,640 3,404 3,084 150 170 2,425
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,432 3,066 150 216 2,597
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,411 3,066 150 195 2,613
Costal Shandong 6,710 2,850 3,459 3,066 150 243 2,542
Jiangsu 6,570 2,720 3,331 3,066 150 115 2,574
Guangdong 6,590 2,640 3,272 3,066 150 56 2,569
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,464 3,500 150 -186 3,105
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,443 3,500 150 -207 3,122
Costal Shandong 6,710 2,850 3,493 3,500 150 -157 3,049
Jiangsu 6,570 2,720 3,364 3,500 150 -286 3,082
Guangdong 6,590 2,640 3,305 3,500 150 -345 3,077
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Heilongjiang 6,620 3,020 3,475 3,500 160 -185 3,251
Dalian, Liaoning 6,470 2,870 3,331 3,620 160 -449 3,431
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,400 2,860 3,312 3,640 160 -488 3,470
Boxing, Shandong 6,620 2,820 3,315 3,660 160 -505 3,451
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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