Today (Feb. 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures extended gains last night, and meal futures fluctuate slightly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases, but the trading is less active than yesterday. Specifically, the price settles at 2640-2850 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2850, Shandong 2780-2820, Jiangsu 2720-2820, Dongguan 2640-2650, and Guangxi 2700-2730.) It will take time for China to totally control the novel coronavirus pneumonia, and local governments have also forbidden the trading of live poultry. The epidemic is most severe in Hubei province, where the inbound of feed and the outbound of meat products remain a problem. Besides, hog production capacity have not resumed after the Lunar New Year, and the demand for meat is lower as the catering industry is hit hard by the epidemic, so the hog production will resume at a slower pace. And the demand from aquaculture is slack in cold weather. In spite of the gloomy demand prospect, mills will quickly pick up operation rates in these two weeks due to good crush margins for soybeans, which will curb rises in meal prices. However, the cost of transportation is lifted by slow logistics, as the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads. In addition, the delivery is quick after the festival, and the trading again reached a high level of 520,000 tonnes yesterday. So far, mills have almost sold out spots in hand and are setting limited quantity for delivery. The tight supply is a support for meal prices now. But as mills gradually resume production, soybean meal prices may drop. Buyers are suggested to make appropriate replenishment on the dips and not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices keep steady with a slight decrease today, of which it settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,190-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,190, down 10; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,230). China continues to purchase South American soybean due to the good crush margin of its futures. On the other hand, being affected by the spread of epidemic, local governments forbid the live poultry trading and the capacity of hog production has not recovered yet. Nevertheless, the demand for meats falls due to a huge hurt of catering industry under the epidemic, so the recovery process of hog production slows down. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Furthermore, the supply of soybean meal gradually increases thanks to a quick rise of operation rate this week, which curbs rapeseed meal price. However, rapeseed is in short supply amid the continuous tensions between China and Canada, so the operation rate in oil mills is low. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will not decline too much and is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term. Buyers can stay on the sideline.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today with some negotiation space. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 11,800-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,100-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,600-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,000-13,300 yuan/tonne. Currently, fishmeal stocks are kept en masse only at some ports, and market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru; hence, traders are buoyed to raise prices. However, a majority of factories have delayed production under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, and there is no prevailing prices available in the market. In the meantime, the trading is very little at ports under the sluggish logistics. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 9,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and partially stable today. Most oil mills continue to delay the production due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, which limits the supply of cottonseed meal. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market may go strongly under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and it. Meanwhile, local governments forbid the live poultry trading affected by the epidemic. In addition, the hog production capacity has not recovered yet and the recovery process slows down, and the demand for meats falls as catering industry is under a huge impact amid the epidemic. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price is not optimistic.