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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 12/2/2020

2020-02-12 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,506 3,937 150 -581 3,656
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,498 3,937 150 -590 3,646
Costal Shandong 6,660 2,880 3,541 3,937 150 -546 3,572
Jiangsu 6,530 2,760 3,421 3,937 150 -666 3,603
Guangdong 6,430 2,640 3,307 3,937 150 -780 3,627
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,506 3,833 150 -477 3,524
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,498 3,833 150 -486 3,515
Costal Shandong 6,660 2,880 3,541 3,833 150 -442 3,440
Jiangsu 6,530 2,760 3,421 3,833 150 -562 3,471
Guangdong 6,430 2,640 3,307 3,833 150 -676 3,495
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,569 3,053 150 366 2,457
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,561 3,053 150 358 2,447
Costal Shandong 6,660 2,880 3,607 3,053 150 404 2,368
Jiangsu 6,530 2,760 3,486 3,053 150 283 2,401
Guangdong 6,430 2,640 3,372 3,053 150 169 2,427
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,443 3,055 150 238 2,619
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,434 3,055 150 229 2,610
Costal Shandong 6,660 2,880 3,474 3,055 150 269 2,539
Jiangsu 6,530 2,760 3,356 3,055 150 151 2,569
Guangdong 6,430 2,640 3,243 3,055 150 38 2,592
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,474 3,500 150 -176 3,143
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,466 3,500 150 -184 3,133
Costal Shandong 6,660 2,880 3,507 3,500 150 -143 3,061
Jiangsu 6,530 2,760 3,388 3,500 150 -262 3,091
Guangdong 6,430 2,640 3,275 3,500 150 -375 3,114
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Heilongjiang 6,460 3,070 3,490 3,500 160 -170 3,283
Dalian, Liaoning 6,310 2,920 3,346 3,620 160 -434 3,463
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,350 2,900 3,336 3,640 160 -464 3,480
Boxing, Shandong 6,570 2,850 3,331 3,660 160 -489 3,461
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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