Today (Feb. 12), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures continued to edge higher last night on a bullish report released by the USDA, and meal futures moderately post gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some low-level purchases. Specifically, the price settles at 2640-2880 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2880, Shandong 2780-2820, Jiangsu 2720-2820, Dongguan 2640-2650, and Guangxi 2700-2730.) A majority of mills are forced to delay the production by the severe epidemic, and the cost of transportation is lifted by slow logistics, as the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads. Besides, soybean meal has been in good trading these days, with most stocks in February sold out. And millers who have low stocks available are setting limited quantity for delivery, leaving many trucks at gates unable to get loaded. However, the coronavirus outbreak is hitting a peak in China this month and may be over by April, according to Zhong Nanshan, a senior medical adviser in China. In addition, the transportation of feed and finished poultry products is not smooth. Hog production capacity also resumes at a slower pace, since the demand for meat has declined when the catering industry is hit hard by the coronavirus. Besides, the demand from aquaculture is slack in cold weather. A gloomy outlook in demand for meal products will curb rises in price. Cushioned by the tight supply, short-term soybean meal prices will keep the strengthening trend, but the mid-to-long-term market will probably not continue the straight upward trend as mills are quickly picking up operation rates due to good crush margins. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices increase today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,200-2,250 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,190, flat; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,250, up 10). The supply of rapeseed gets tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so rapeseed stocks in coastal areas are less under the low operation rate, and oil mills raise prices. But Chinese oil plants continue purchasing South American soybean due to the good crush margin of its futures and the imports for U.S. soybean and meats will also increase in the later period, which is bearish for domestic market. On the other hand, it takes time to end the coronavirus epidemic. And Zhong Nanshan expected that the epidemic could reach an inflection point in mid-to-late February and come to an end before April. Except that, the demand for meals is still weak in the slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term. With the operating rate going up later period, the prices may fall back. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial rise of 200 yuan/tonne today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Currently, fishmeal stocks are kept en masse only at some ports, and market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru, which help strengthen the sentiment for higher prices and boost the market. However, a majority of factories have delayed production under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, and there is no prevailing prices available in the market. In the meantime, the trading is very little at ports under the sluggish logistics. Overall, the market is predicted to steady strong with a strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and several up by 20 yuan/tonne today. Most oil mills continue to delay the production due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, which limits the supply of cottonseed meal. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange mildly rise today, and spot soybean meal steadily increases by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market may go strongly under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and it. In addition, being affected by the spread of epidemic, local governments forbid the live poultry trading and the capacity of hog production has not recovered yet. Nevertheless, the demand for meats falls due to a huge hurt of catering industry under the epidemic, so the recovery process of hog production slows down. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price is not optimistic.