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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 13/2/2020

2020-02-13 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,548 3,971 150 -573 3,725
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,479 3,971 150 -643 3,713
Costal Shandong 6,450 2,880 3,501 3,971 150 -620 3,665
Jiangsu 6,430 2,780 3,418 3,971 150 -703 3,670
Guangdong 6,700 2,670 3,382 3,971 150 -739 3,605
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,548 3,867 150 -469 3,594
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,479 3,867 150 -539 3,582
Costal Shandong 6,450 2,880 3,501 3,867 150 -516 3,534
Jiangsu 6,430 2,780 3,418 3,867 150 -599 3,538
Guangdong 6,700 2,670 3,382 3,867 150 -635 3,473
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,610 3,079 150 381 2,518
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,541 3,079 150 312 2,505
Costal Shandong 6,450 2,880 3,565 3,079 150 336 2,454
Jiangsu 6,430 2,780 3,482 3,079 150 253 2,459
Guangdong 6,700 2,670 3,449 3,079 150 220 2,391
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,486 3,071 150 265 2,665
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,416 3,071 150 195 2,653
Costal Shandong 6,450 2,880 3,436 3,071 150 215 2,608
Jiangsu 6,430 2,780 3,354 3,071 150 133 2,612
Guangdong 6,700 2,670 3,315 3,071 150 94 2,551
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,517 3,500 150 -133 3,168
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,447 3,500 150 -203 3,157
Costal Shandong 6,450 2,880 3,468 3,500 150 -182 3,110
Jiangsu 6,430 2,780 3,386 3,500 150 -264 3,114
Guangdong 6,700 2,670 3,349 3,500 150 -301 3,051
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Heilongjiang 6,350 3,150 3,536 3,500 160 -124 3,305
Dalian, Liaoning 6,200 3,000 3,392 3,620 160 -388 3,485
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,250 2,900 3,320 3,640 160 -480 3,500
Boxing, Shandong 6,320 2,900 3,331 3,660 160 -489 3,511
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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