Today (Feb. 13), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybeans rose last night, and meal futures also post gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go up by 10-30 yuan/tonne, and the trading on forward basis is good, but tepid for spots. Specifically, the price settles at 2660-2930 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2930, Shandong 2900-2920, Jiangsu 2730-2840, Dongguan 2660-2680, and Guangxi 2700-2730.) A majority of mills are forced to delay the production by the severe epidemic, and the cost of transportation is lifted by slow logistics, for the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads. Besides, soybean meal has been in good trading these days, with 600,000 tonnes sold yesterday. Mills now have very low stocks, which dropped by 9% to 320,000 tonnes in the week ending February 7th. Soybean meal stocks have almost been sold out this month, and millers are setting limited quantity for delivery, leaving many trucks at gates unable to get loaded. Meal prices thus move higher underpinned by tight supplies. But it will take time for China to take comprehensive control of the coronavirus, which has resulted in a 100% loss in revenue for 78% of restaurants and thus affected the meat consumption. Besides, the recovery in hog production is also suffering a setback, and the demand from aquaculture is slack in cold weather. The market is concerned for a gloomy outlook in demand for meal products. Moreover, mills are actively scooping up on soybeans in Brazil and US PNW due to handsome crush margins. Therefore, meal prices will have limited rises. Cushioned by the tight supply, short-term soybean meal prices will have more upward momentum, but the mid-to-long-term market will probably not continue the straight upward trend. Buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks, but not to chase after excessively high prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices increase today, of which it settles up 10-40 yuan/tonne at 2,230-2,260 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,230, up 40; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,260, up 10). The supply of rapeseed gets tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so rapeseed stocks in coastal areas are less under the low operation rate, and oil mills raise prices. But Chinese oil plants continue purchasing South American soybean due to the good crush margin of its futures and the imports for U.S. soybean and meats will also increase in the later period, which is bearish for domestic market. On the other hand, it takes time to end the coronavirus epidemic. And Zhong Nanshan expected that the epidemic could reach an inflection point in mid-to-late February and come to an end before April. Except that, the demand for meals is still weak in the slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors and likely to fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term. With the operating rate going up later period, the prices may fall back. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Under the severe influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, domestic mills have postponed the production and there is no prevailing price in the market. Meanwhile, fishmeal shipment is also interrupted amid a blockade in roads. But fishmeal stocks are kept en masse only at some ports, and market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru, which help strengthen the sentiment for higher prices and boost the market. Overall, the market is predicted to steady strong with a strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and several up by 40 yuan/tonne today. Most oil mills continue to delay the production due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, which limits the supply of cottonseed meal. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange rise today, and spot soybean meal increases by 10-30 yuan/tonne. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market is predicted to still be strong under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and it. In addition, the epidemic has caused 78% of restaurants to lose more than 100% of their revenues, affecting the meats consumption. And the recovery of hog production capacity also has been delayed. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price is not optimistic.