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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 14/2/2020

2020-02-14 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,485 3,986 150 -651 3,754
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,437 3,986 150 -699 3,744
Costal Shandong 6,400 2,880 3,491 3,986 150 -645 3,696
Jiangsu 6,360 2,770 3,397 3,986 150 -739 3,706
Guangdong 6,650 2,660 3,365 3,986 150 -771 3,636
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,485 3,881 150 -546 3,621
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,437 3,881 150 -594 3,611
Costal Shandong 6,400 2,880 3,491 3,881 150 -540 3,563
Jiangsu 6,360 2,770 3,397 3,881 150 -634 3,573
Guangdong 6,650 2,660 3,365 3,881 150 -666 3,503
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Feb. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,547 3,091 150 306 2,543
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,499 3,091 150 258 2,533
Costal Shandong 6,400 2,880 3,555 3,091 150 314 2,482
Jiangsu 6,360 2,770 3,460 3,091 150 219 2,492
Guangdong 6,650 2,660 3,431 3,091 150 190 2,419
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,424 3,082 150 192 2,688
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,375 3,082 150 143 2,678
Costal Shandong 6,400 2,880 3,427 3,082 150 195 2,633
Jiangsu 6,360 2,770 3,333 3,082 150 101 2,642
Guangdong 6,650 2,660 3,298 3,082 150 66 2,576
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,454 3,500 150 -196 3,178
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,406 3,500 150 -244 3,168
Costal Shandong 6,400 2,880 3,459 3,500 150 -191 3,122
Jiangsu 6,360 2,770 3,365 3,500 150 -285 3,131
Guangdong 6,650 2,660 3,332 3,500 150 -318 3,063
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
　 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost 　 　
Heilongjiang 6,310 3,080 3,474 3,500 160 -186 3,313
Dalian, Liaoning 6,160 2,930 3,330 3,620 160 -450 3,493
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 6,200 2,860 3,280 3,640 160 -520 3,510
Boxing, Shandong 6,250 2,900 3,320 3,660 160 -500 3,525
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.
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