Today (Feb. 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The Phase 1 trade agreement would go into effect within 30 days after its Jan. 15 signing by U.S. and Chinese officials, so traders predicted that China would expedite its purchases of US farm produce. US soybean futures extended slight gains last night, but meal futures move lower after higher opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some purchases on forward basis, but the overall trading is not as good as that of yesterday. Specifically, the price settles at 2660-2900 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 2860 for March contract, Shandong 2890-2900, Jiangsu 2720-2770, Dongguan 2660-2680, and Guangxi 2700-2740.) A majority of oil mills have not kicked off the production amid the severe epidemic, and the transportation cost has also been lifted by the sluggish logistics, for the epidemic has led to a blockade in cities and roads. Soybean meal has been in good trading these days, with 790,000 tonnes sold yesterday and a total of 2.32 mln tonnes in the first four days this week. Mills now have little soybean meal in storage, with stocks this month almost sold out, and millers are setting limited quantity for delivery, leaving many trucks at gates unable to get loaded. And a decline in soybean oil price also props up meal prices. But oil mills are actively scooping up on soybeans from Brazil and US PNW due to handsome crush margins, so soybean crush will also jump higher very soon. And it will still take time to take an overall control of the epidemic, so the demand for meal products has a gloomy prospect. These will curb the rise in meal prices. Underpinned by the supply tensions, short-term soybean meal market will keep strengthening, but constrained by the demand, the mid-to-long-term trend is not clear. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices increase today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,230-2,290 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,230; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,290, up 30). The supply of rapeseed gets tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so rapeseed stocks in coastal areas are less under the low operation rate. Meanwhile, the trading of soybean meal goes better after the holiday and stocks stay at a low level. Thus, rapeseed meal prices rise under the support. But the soybean crush in oil plants rebounds quickly due to the good crush margin of its futures. Except that, the demand for meats gets light on account of the coronavirus epidemic. Moreover, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Therefore, the upward space of rapeseed meal price is depressed by these factors. Additionally, short-term rapeseed meal price will still go strongly in the short supply, so the mid-term trend is not optimistic.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Under the severe influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in China, domestic mills have continued putting off the production and there is still no prevailing price in the market. Meanwhile, fishmeal shipment is also interrupted amid a blockade in roads. But fishmeal stocks are kept en masse only at some ports, and market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru, which help strengthen the sentiment for higher prices and boost the market. Overall, the market is predicted to steady with a strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal is mostly unquoted and several quoted are stable today. Only few oil mills will resume production in recent days, and the supply of cottonseed meal is very limited at the moment. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market is still likely to be strong. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by narrow price spread between soybean meal and it. In addition, the coronavirus epidemic has affected the meats consumption. And the recovery of hog production capacity also has been delayed. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, it shouldn’t be too optimistic about the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price.