Today (Feb. 17), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed with losses, subdued by concerns over less exports to China under the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia and by estimates for abundant harvests in South America. But meal futures post moderate rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, supported by tight soybean meal supply in the spot market. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some purchases on forward basis, yet with tepid trading for spot contract. Specifically, the price settles at 2660-3000 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3000, Shandong 2900 and March 3035, Jiangsu 2770-2790, Dongguan 2660-2700, and Guangxi 2700-2740.) While mills have delayed production under the epidemic, they have been trading well in soybean meal since after the festival. With low stocks in storage, they have little supply for spot contracts and are signing March contracts. And millers are also limiting quantity for delivery, leaving many trucks at gates unable to get loaded. This continues to bolster soybean meal prices. But China has scrapped toll charge on nationwide toll roads from this day onwards until the epidemic ends, so the transportation cost of soybean meal will decline. And China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have made an announcement that such upstream enterprises of raw material as soybean meal should accelerate to resume work and production, so oil mills are likely to pick up soybean crush to a high level of nearly 1.80 mln tonnes for both next two weeks. Besides, soybean meal stocks have also begun to mount higher. And oil prices also rebound today after some sharp declines. These may limit the rise in meal prices. Overall, meal prices will probably not see huge losses with tight supply at present, but the mid-to-long-term trend is not clear. Buyers are suggested not to chase after excessively high prices.

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices increase today, of which it settles up 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,250-2,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,250; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,310, up 20). The supply of rapeseed gets tight amid unclear relations between China and Canada, so rapeseed stocks in coastal areas are less under the low operation rate. Meanwhile, the trading of soybean meal goes better after the holiday and spot soybean meal is in short supply in China. Thus, rapeseed meal prices rise under the support. Nevertheless, South American soybeans are likely to be high-yield and the crush margin of soybean futures is considerable. Accordingly, soybean crush in oil plants rallies by 100% to 1.57 mln tonnes this week and will increase to a higher level of 1.8 mln tonnes over the next two weeks. Except that, the demand for meats gets light on account of the coronavirus epidemic. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture is also in an off season. Last week, rapeseed meal stocks in coastal areas rose by 46% to 22,000 tonnes. Therefore, the further upward space of rapeseed meal price is limited. And buyers can stay on the sideline.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Under the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, there is still a blockade in roads in some parts of China, so it is still slow to make shipment in fishmeal market. But fishmeal stocks are concentrated only at some ports, and market sentiment is still affected by the end of fish catches in centre-north regions of Peru; hence, traders are seeking for higher prices. On the whole, the market is predicted to keep steady with a strengthening trend in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Partial cottonseed meal increases by 30-50 yuan/tonne today. Only few oil mills have resumed production, and the supply of cottonseed meal is very limited at the moment. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Besides, meals on DCE moderately rise today, and spot soybean meal is steadily up 10-20 yuan/tonne. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market is still likely to be strong under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by an inversion of price spread between soybean meal and it. Moreover, the toll charge of nationwide toll roads will be scraped since Feb. 17 midnight. With a decrease of transportation cost, it is bearish for the market in sales regions. In addition, the coronavirus epidemic has affected the meats consumption. And the recovery of hog production capacity also has been delayed. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, it shouldn’t be too optimistic about the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price.