Price: The price for imported soybeans is not available at ports in China under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. Imported soybean stocks at ports are low and now the transportation is lifted by sluggish logistics. However, CONAB has raised its estimates by 0.8% to 123.2 mln tonnes for Brazilian soybeans and the USDA has also raised its forecast by 2 mln tonnes to 125 mln tonnes. And Chinese importers are sccoping up on soybeans. Overall, the price for imported soybeans will probably be available next week. 

Crush: Following another rise in operation rates this week (Feb. 8-14), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,575,600 tonnes (meal 1,244,724 tonnes and oil 299,364 tonnes), up 788,100 tonnes or 100.08% from 787,500 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 45.28% up 22.65 percentage points from 22.63% in the previous week. As operation rates continue to increase in the next two weeks, soybean crush is predicted to be around 1.75 mln tonnes and 1.80 mln tonnes, respectively.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 30,266,714 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 686,371 tonnes or 2.22% from 30,953,085 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 8,240,300 tonnes, up 438,615 tonnes or 5.62% from 7,801,685 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to increase this week, but the growth is smaller as mills further pick up soybean crush to 1.57 mln tonnes. In the week as of February 14th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 4,882,200 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, up 69,800 tonnes by 1.45% from 4,812,400 tonnes last week yet down by 15.71% from 5,792,500 tonnes of the same period last year. As the crush is predicted to be around 1.75 mln tonnes next week and 1.80 mln tonnes that following week, soybean stocks will probably follow to decline. 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 21 cargoes with 1.372 mln tonnes this week, a total of 36 cargoes with 2.361 tonnes for February so far. The import is predicted to be 76 cargoes with 4.967 million tonnes for February, 5.10 million tonnes for March, 7.50 million tonnes for April, 8.10 mln tonnes for May and 8.70 mln tonnes for June. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Feb 10-14), domestic soybean meal prices continue to rise. As of this Friday, the price settles up 80-140 yuan/tonne at 2,660-2,900 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks slightly increase this week with growing soybean crush. In the week ending February 14th, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 346,500 tonnes, up 23,400 tonnes by 7.24% from 323,100 tonnes last week and down by 38.73% from 565,600 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks may increase as mills will continue to pick up soybean crush in the coming two weeks, but the overall stocks will stay at a low level overall by the end of this month. 

Price: This week (Feb 10-14), domestic soybean oil prices drop further. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 6,100-6,400 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly down by 310-440 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Oil mills continue to pick up operation rates, but under the influence of the epidemic, most of them are just crushing and unable to make shipment; hence, soybean oil stocks sharply increase this week. In the week ending February 14th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,027,600 tonnes, up 130,700 tonnes by 14.57% from 896,900 tonnes last week, up 159,600 tonnes by 18.39% from 868,000 tonnes last month, yet down 282,700 tonnes by 21.58% from 1,310,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,104,400 tonnes.