Today (Feb. 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures market was closed for the President’s Day yesterday, and meal futures edge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily go down by 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2650-3000 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3000, Shandong 2920 and March 3015, Jiangsu 2730-2800, Dongguan 2650-2700, and Guangxi 2700-2740.) Driven by good crush margins on the DCE, oil mills will quickly pick up soybean crush to nearly 1.80 mln tonnes in both next two weeks, and soybean meal stocks will also creep higher. Most mills have resumed shipment in south China and not set limited quantity for delivery any more. In the meantime, under the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, farming companies are slow in making replenishment of poultry, hogs and other animals, so the consumption of soybean meal is also sluggish. After a round of active replenishment, mid-to-downstream buyers are likely to have lower and lower demand. These are all weighing down meal prices. But currently, mills still have small amount of soybean meal in storage as they have sold out almost all spot goods, so that they are now signing contracts that will be carry out in and after March. And some northern millers are still setting limited quotas for delivery. Overall, the market is predicted to have little space for downside and may keep range-bound. Buyers are suggested to buy on low forward basis and remain cautious in chasing after high spot prices. 

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices decline today, of which it settles down 10-30 yuan/tonne at 2,220-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,220; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,300, down 10). The crush margin of soybean futures is considerable, attracting China’s buyers to purchase Brazil and US soybeans. For the next two weeks, weekly soybean crush will climb up to a higher level of 1.8 mln tonnes, and the supply of soybean meal will continue to increase. In addition, it takes time for the pneumonia epidemic to come to an end, which impedes the transportation of feedstuffs and livestock products. Meanwhile, catering industry is under a huge impact due to the epidemic, affecting meats consumption. Also, the demand outlook for meal products is worrying under a slack season of aquaculture. Accordingly, rapeseed meal prices are curbed. However, rapeseed is in short supply amid continuous tensions between China and Canada, so oil mills reduce the operating rate. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is relatively resilient and will fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Under the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, there is still a blockade in roads in some parts of China, so it is still slow to make shipment in fishmeal market. But fishmeal stocks are concentrated only at some ports, and some traders have little supply in hand at present; hence, traders are seeking for higher prices. On the whole, the market is predicted to keep steady in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,730 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is unchanged at 1,250 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,560 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Partial cottonseed meal is stable and some increases by 50 yuan/tonne today. The operation rate is very low in cottonseed oil plants, so the output of cottonseed is limited. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market is still likely to be strong under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by an inversion of price spread between soybean meal and it. Besides, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange edge down today, and spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Therefore, the price rises of cottonseed meal are curbed by these factors. In addition, being affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, the recovery of livestock in breeding enterprises is slower. Even more, the outlook of demand for meals is worrisome attributed to a slack season of aquaculture. Consequently, it shouldn’t be too optimistic about the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price.