Today (Feb. 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures edged lower last night, and meal futures slightly fluctuate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spot prices steadily post a partial fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trading, with some purchases on low forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2650-3000 yuan/tonne today. (Tianjin 3000, Shandong 2880-2950, Jiangsu 2790-2820, Dongguan 2650-2700, and Guangxi 2700-2740.) As soybean meal market has been in good trading after the Lunar New Year holidays, oil mills have low stocks at present and have almost sold out spot goods. Moreover, in order to restore live hog production, the State Council has decided to expand the range on subsidies and discounted loans to cover farmers whose slaughtering rate is 500 pigs a year, which is adjusted from the standard of 5000 pigs originally. Therefore, farmers may be encouraged to increase hog replenishment. And this will prop up meal prices. But oil mills have almost resumed production now, and soybean meal supply will continue to increase. Currently, the supply is tight in north China but loose in the south, and the price has been staying at the lowest level in Dongguan, a city in Guangdong, so local oil mills and traders are making shipments to the northern markets. Accordingly, soybean meal spot prices may fall from the high level in the north. In addition, since the outbreak of the epidemic, some local governments have closed the live poultry markets, which has interrupted the transportation of feed, young poultry and live poultry, forced the slaughtering companies to suspend work and caused severe losses. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs forecast this will exert an impact on the supply of meat and eggs in the second and third quarters. Overall, short-term soybean meal prices will likely keep range-bound.  

Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal prices stay stable with slight declines today, of which it partly settles down 10 yuan/tonne at 2,220-2,300 yuan/tonne in coastal areas (Guangxi 2,220; Guangdong not offered; Fujian 2,270). The crush margin of soybean futures is considerable, so weekly soybean crush will climb up rapidly to a higher level of 1.8 mln tonnes in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, catering industry is under a huge impact due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, affecting meats consumption. And it will negatively affect the breeding industry. Also, the demand from aquaculture has been in a slack season. Accordingly, rapeseed meal prices are curbed by these factors. However, rapeseed is in short supply amid continuous tensions between China and Canada, so oil mills reduce the operating rate. But most spot soybean meal has been sold out, and pre-sale goods will not be delivered until March. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range amid the tight supply. Buyers can wait and see.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 12,000-12,200 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 12,200-12,500 yuan/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 13,200-13,300 yuan/tonne. Currently, fishmeal stocks are concentrated only at some ports, while fresh goods have not arrived at domestic ports, so port stocks are on the decline. This is bullish to the market. However, under the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, there is still a blockade in roads in some parts of China, so it is still slow to make shipment in fishmeal market. On the whole, the market is predicted to keep steady in the short term. Stocks at port: Huangpu 57,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 29,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. FOB prices from foreign merchants today: It is both quoted lower by 30 USD at 1,400 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and 1,700 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content goes up by 100 USD at 1,350 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content also up by 100 USD at 1,660 USD/tonne. 

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are flat today. As Xinjiang oil plants have trouble in returning to job, the operation rate is very low, so the output of cottonseed is limited. And downstream feed mills make replenishment. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal market is still likely to be strong under the support. But the demand for cottonseed meal is limited by an inversion of price spread between soybean meal and it. Besides, live poultry markets have been closed since the outbreak, and the transportation of feed, poult and live poultry has been blocked. In consequence, slaughtering enterprises have been shut down, causing very serious losses. And China’s Ministry of Agriculture expects that it will bring an impact on the supply of poultry meats and eggs in the second and third quarter. Consequently, these are bearish for meals prices, and participants shouldn’t be too optimistic about the mid-term trend of cottonseed meal price.