Price: The price for imported soybeans is not available at ports in China under the influence of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. Imported soybean stocks at ports are low and now the transportation cost is lifted by sluggish logistics. However, many agencies have raised estimates for Brazilian soybeans, and China may have bought some 20 cargoes from Brazil this week. Besides, starting from March 2nd, China will accept the application of domestic firms for the exemption of additional tariffs on US agricultural products within a certain period of time, including soybeans, wheat, corn and sorghum, according to an announcement by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Tuesday. Overall, the price for imported soybeans will probably keep firm when the market reopens. 

Crush: Following another rise in operation rates this week, soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,808,800 tonnes (meal 1,428,952 tonnes and oil 343,672 tonnes), up 233,200 tonnes or 14.8% from 1,575,600 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 51.98%, up 6.7 percentage points from 45.28% in the previous week. As operation rates continue to increase in the next two weeks, soybean crush is predicted to be around 1.85 mln tonnes and 1.87 mln tonnes, respectively.

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.3023 mln tonnes in February at current utilization rate, above 5.913 mln tonnes in the previous month and also above 3.6871 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 32,075,514 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 443,971 tonnes or 1.37% from 32,519,485 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 10,049,100 tonnes, up 681,015 tonnes or 7.26% from 9,368,085 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks slightly decrease this week, for mills continue to to pick up soybean crush to a high level of 1.80 mln tonnes. In the week as of February 21st, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 4,386,000 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 496,200 tonnes by 10.16% from 4,882,200 tonnes last week and down by 20.96% from 5,549,500 tonnes of the same period last year. As the crush is predicted to extend the uptrend to around 1.85 mln tonnes next week and 1.87 mln tonnes that following week, soybean stocks will probably continue to decline.  

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 26 cargoes with 1.694 mln tonnes this week, a total of 62 cargoes with 4.051 tonnes for February so far. The import is predicted to be 76 cargoes with 4.967 million tonnes for February, 4.90 million tonnes for March, 7.30 million tonnes for April, 8.10 mln tonnes for May and 8.70 mln tonnes for June. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Feb 17-21), domestic soybean meal prices are mixed. As of this Friday, the price fluctuates by 10-40 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,660-2,900 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks go on increasing this week with growing soybean crush. In the week ending February 21st, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 365,700 tonnes, up 19,200 tonnes by 5.54% from 346,500 tonnes last week yet down by 43.27% from 644,700 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks may rise from the low level, for mills will continue to pick up soybean crush in the coming two weeks.

Price: This week (Feb 17-21), domestic soybean oil prices continue the downtrend. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles at 5,990-6,350 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions, mostly down by 50-320 yuan/tonne. 

Inventory: Oil mills continue to pick up operation rates, but under the influence of the epidemic, most of them are just crushing and fail to sell out soybean oil; hence, soybean oil stocks continue the sharp increase this week. In the week ending February 21st, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,197,800 tonnes, up 170,200 tonnes by 16.56% from 1,027,600 tonnes last week, up 347,800 tonnes by 40.92% from 850,000 tonnes last month, yet down 106,500 tonnes by 8.17% from 1,304,300 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,140,100 tonnes.