China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 8, 2020)

2020-02-25 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (Feb. 21), edible palm oil stock totals 944,500 tonnes at domestic ports, up 0.2% from 942,200 tonnes a week earlier; up 105,400 tonnes or 12.6% from 839,100 tonnes the same period last month; up 167,700 tonnes or 21.6% from 776,800 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 158,300 tonnes, down 2,200 tonnes or 6.2% from 160,500 tonnes last week.

This week, domestic edible palm oil stocks rally again. And the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed this week, which narrows by 57 yuan/tonne at 428 yuan/tonne from 485 yuan/tonne last week. But most catering enterprises have yet to recover due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, so that the demand for edible oil is still weak. In consequence, the trading of palm oil is poor this week, which totals 7,500 tonnes with an increase of 3,150 tonnes or 72.4% from 4,350 tonnes last week. Though the growth is larger, the total trading volume still stays at a super low level on account of low base. Additionally, China’s buyers have bought not many cargoes of palm oil due to the poor import profit, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to slide in later period.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W8	W7	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W8	W7	Change
Tianjin Port	14.42	14.55	-0.13	10.50%	5.60%	1.2	1.2	0
Hebei	0.94	0.8	0.14	3033.30%	32.40%	0.15	0.3	-0.15
Shandong Port	3.15	3.3	-0.15	-17.50%	-18.60%	1.48	1.55	-0.07
East China	34.91	35.02	-0.11	12.70%	61.00%	10.05	9.9	0.15
Guangdong	33.75	32.9	0.85	15.20%	5.30%	2.56	2.62	-0.06
Guangxi	3.48	3.82	-0.34	7.40%	11.90%	0.39	0.48	-0.09
Fujian	3.8	3.83	-0.03	35.70%	46.00%	0	0	0
Total：	94.45	94.22	0.23	12.60%	21.60%	15.83	16.05	-0.22

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for February this week is 320,000 tonnes and flat from last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for March is 320,000 tonnes unchanged with last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate for April is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2020/2/17	Mar.2020	695	5829	5602	-227
2020/2/17	Apr.2020	690	5788	5602	-186
2020/2/17	May.2020	682.5	5726	5602	-124
2020/2/17	Jun.2020	675	5664	5542	-122
2020/2/17	Jun.2020	672.5	5643	5542	-101
2020/2/17	Aug.2020	667.5	5602	5542	-60
2020/2/18	Mar.2020	695	5844	5512	-332
2020/2/18	Apr.2020	690	5802	5512	-290
2020/2/19	Mar.2020	687.5	5791	5444	-347
2020/2/19	Apr.2020	685	5770	5444	-326
2020/2/19	May.2020	680	5728	5444	-284
2020/2/19	Jun.2020	675	5687	5432	-255
2020/2/20	Mar.2020	680	5742	5504	-238
2020/2/20	Apr.2020	675	5700	5504	-196
2020/2/20	May.2020	670	5659	5504	-155
2020/2/20	Jun.2020	665	5617	5442	-175
2020/2/21	Mar.2020	675	5706	5490	-216
2020/2/21	Apr.2020	662.5	5602	5490	-112
2020/2/21	Aug.2020	650	5498	5456	-42
2020/2/21	Sep.2020	650	5498	5456	-42

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2020/2/17	0
2020/2/18	0
2020/2/19	0
2020/2/20	2	Aug	635	5357	24000
2020/2/21	1	Aug	641	5418	12000

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