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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 2/3/2020

2020-03-02 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,443  3,949  150 -656 3,801 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,399  3,949  150 -700 3,806 
Costal Shandong 5,670  2,930  3,392  3,949  150 -707 3,825 
Jiangsu 5,770  2,810  3,316  3,949  150 -783 3,801 
Guangdong 6,000  2,700  3,273  3,949  150 -826 3,746 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,443  3,867  150 -574 3,697 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,399  3,867  150 -618 3,702 
Costal Shandong 5,670  2,930  3,392  3,867  150 -625 3,721 
Jiangsu 5,770  2,810  3,316  3,867  150 -701 3,697 
Guangdong 6,000  2,700  3,273  3,867  150 -744 3,642 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,500  3,053  150  297  2,594 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,457  3,053  150  254  2,599 
Costal Shandong 5,670  2,930  3,449  3,053  150  246  2,619 
Jiangsu 5,770  2,810  3,374  3,053  150  171  2,594 
Guangdong 6,000  2,700  3,333  3,053  150  130  2,535 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,385  2,993  150  242  2,664 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,342  2,993  150  199  2,668 
Costal Shandong 5,670  2,930  3,335  2,993  150  192  2,687 
Jiangsu 5,770  2,810  3,259  2,993  150  116  2,664 
Guangdong 6,000  2,700  3,213  2,993  150  70  2,611 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,414  3,500  150  -236  3,269 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,371  3,500  150  -279  3,274 
Costal Shandong 5,670  2,930  3,364  3,500  150  -286  3,292 
Jiangsu 5,770  2,810  3,287  3,500  150  -363  3,269 
Guangdong 6,000  2,700  3,243  3,500  150  -407  3,215 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,920  3,120  3,443  3,500  160  -217  3,391 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,770  2,970  3,299  3,620  160  -481  3,571 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,750  2,920  3,256  3,640  160  -544  3,600 
Boxing, Shandong 5,780  2,900  3,245  3,660  160  -575  3,619 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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