According to Cofeed, in the week as of February 28th, details of soybean oil inventories and outstanding contracts in main domestic regions are as follows:

 

As operation rates jump to a very high level this week (Feb. 22-28), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,927,200 tonnes (meal 1,522,488 tonnes and oil 366,168 tonnes), up 118,400 tonnes or 6.54% from 1,808,800 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 55.38%, up 3.40 percentage points from 51.98% in the previous week. Some oil mills will suspend production in the next two weeks for a lack of soybeans, for soybean arrivals are forecast to be in small volume in March. With lower operation rates, soybean crush is predicted to be about 1.63 mln tonnes next week and 1.65 mln tonnes that following week.

 

Oil mills have picked up operation rates to a very high level, but under the influence of the epidemic, most of them have seen very small shipments; hence, soybean oil stocks continue the sharp increase this week. In the week ending February 28th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,344,200 tonnes, up 146,400 tonnes by 12.22% from 1,197,800 tonnes last week, up 495,200 tonnes by 58.33% from 849,000 tonnes last month, and up 6,200 tonnes by 0.46% from 1,338,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,168,300 tonnes. 

 

Fig.: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years