Price: Imported soybean stocks at ports are low at ports, which continues to support the market. Meanwhile, China may postpone its huge purchases on US soybeans, as the novel coronavirus is spreading across many countries and regions, including South Korea, Italy and the Middle East. In addition, Argentina suspended the export registration of agricultural products with a plan to raise soybean export duties by 3 percentage points to 33%, which will also limit the imports by Chinese importers. However, China is still buying up on Brazilian soybean due to its favorable prices and bumper harvest estimates. In conclusion, the price for imported soybeans will probably keep firm when the market reopens. 

Crush: As operation rates jump to a very high level this week (Feb. 22-28), soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,927,200 tonnes (meal 1,522,488 tonnes and oil 366,168 tonnes), up 118,400 tonnes or 6.54% from 1,808,800 tonnes in the previous week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) reach 55.38%, up 3.40 percentage points from 51.98% in the previous week. Some oil mills will suspend production in the next two weeks for a lack of soybeans, for soybean arrivals are forecast to be in small volume in March. With lower operation rates, soybean crush is predicted to be about 1.63 mln tonnes next week and 1.65 mln tonnes that following week.

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.34 mln tonnes in February at current utilization rate, above 5.913 mln tonnes in the previous month and also above 3.6871 mln tonnes of the corresponding period last year.

As of this week, soybean crush nationwide totals 34,002,714 tonnes in the soybean crop year of 2019/20 (from October 1st, 2019), down 194,371 tonnes or 0.57% from 34,197,085 tonnes of the same period last year. In calendar year of 2020 (from Jan. 1st, 2020), national soybean crush amounts to 11,976,300 tonnes, up 930,615 tonnes or 8.42% from 11,045,685 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2019. 

Inventory: Imported soybean stocks continue to decrease this week, for mills continue to pick up soybean crush to a very high level of 1.92 mln tonnes. In the week as of February 28th, imported soybean stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions total 3,811,700 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, down 574,300 tonnes by 13.09% from 4,386,000 tonnes last week and down by 22.45% from 4,915,400 tonnes of the same period last year. The crush will drop to 1.60-1.65 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, but soybean stocks are forecast to continue the decline due to small soybean arrivals in March. 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean arrivals are 19 cargoes with 910,000 tonnes this week, a total of 76 cargoes with 4.96 mln tonnes for February so far. The import is predicted to be 75 cargoes with 4.89 million tonnes for March, 7.50 million tonnes for April, 8.10 mln tonnes for May, 8.70 mln tonnes for June and 9.0 mln tonnes for July. Statistics will be updated every week on account of variable and unstable buying.  

Price: This week (Feb 24-28), domestic soybean meal prices fluctuate to decline. As of this Friday, the price settles down 10-50 yuan/tonne at 2650-2860 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks go on increasing this week with growing soybean crush. In the week ending February 28th, soybean meal stocks in mills in domestic coastal regions are 471,400 tonnes, up 105,700 tonnes by 28.90% from 365,700 tonnes last week yet down by 33.43% from 708,200 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. Soybean meal stocks may fall again, for mills will reduce soybean crush in the coming two weeks.

Price: This week (Feb 24-28), domestic soybean oil prices continue the sharp decline. As of this Friday, the price for GB Grade I settles down 200-630 yuan at 5,540-5,720 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal regions. 

Inventory: Oil mills have picked up operation rates to a very high level, but under the influence of the epidemic, most of them have seen very small shipments; hence, soybean oil stocks continue the sharp increase this week. In the week ending February 28th, China’s commercial inventory has totaled 1,344,200 tonnes, up 146,400 tonnes by 12.22% from 1,197,800 tonnes last week, up 495,200 tonnes by 58.33% from 849,000 tonnes last month, and up  6,200 tonnes by 0.46% from 1,338,000 tonnes of the corresponding period last year. And the five-year average at the same period is 1,168,300 tonnes.