China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 9, 2020)

2020-03-03 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

As of this Friday (Feb. 28), edible palm oil stock totals 926,300 tonnes at domestic ports, down 1.9% from 944,500 tonnes a week earlier; up 51,300 tonnes or 5.9% from 875,000 tonnes the same period last month; up 143,600 tonnes or 18.3% from 782,700 tonnes the same period last year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 150,100 tonnes, down 8,200 tonnes or 5.2% from 158,300 tonnes last week.

With less cargoes of palm oil arriving at ports, domestic edible palm oil stocks stop rising and start falling this week. As the price declines of palm oil are higher than soybean oil, the price spread between them has enlarged this week, which extends by 217 yuan/tonne at 645 yuan/tonne from 428 yuan/tonne last week. But most catering enterprises have yet to recover due to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, so that the demand for edible oil is still weak. In consequence, the trading of palm oil is poor this week, which totals 4,400 tonnes with a decrease of 3,100 tonnes or 41.3% from 7,500 tonnes last week. Additionally, China’s buyers have bought not many cargoes of palm oil due to the poor import profit, so edible palm oil stocks are likely to slide in later period on the whole.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 mT）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W9	W8	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W9	W8	Change
Tianjin Port	13.12	14.42	-1.3	-11.00%	-17.70%	1.2	1.2	0
Hebei	0.76	0.94	-0.18	1.30%	52.00%	0.12	0.15	-0.03
Shandong Port	4.5	3.15	1.35	20.00%	7.90%	1.33	1.48	-0.15
East China	33.76	34.91	-1.15	8.90%	52.40%	9.7	10.05	-0.35
Guangdong	33.62	33.75	-0.13	12.80%	15.13%	2.41	2.56	-0.15
Guangxi	3.07	3.48	-0.41	-11.00%	2.30%	0.25	0.39	-0.14
Fujian	3.8	3.8	0	-5.00%	15.10%	0	0	0
Total：	92.63	94.45	-1.82	5.90%	18.30%	15.01	15.83	-0.82

Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

II. Goods Arrivals

According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for March this week is 320,000 tonnes and flat from last week (RBD palm olein 200,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). And the estimate for April is 320,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 200,000 and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	DCE (RBM/mT)	Import Margin
2020/2/24	Mar.2020	672.5	5687	5404	-283
2020/2/24	Apr.2020	660	5583	5404	-179
2020/2/24	May.2020	660	5583	5404	-179
2020/2/24	Jun.2020	665	5624	5402	-222
2020/2/24	Jul.2020	650	5499	5402	-97
2020/2/24	Aug.2020	645	5458	5402	-56
2020/2/25	Mar.2020	655	5528	5316	-212
2020/2/25	Apr.2020	650	5486	5316	-170
2020/2/25	Aug.2020	637.5	5383	5332	-51
2020/2/26	Mar.2020	645	5448	5238	-210
2020/2/26	Apr.2020	645	5448	5238	-210
2020/2/26	Aug.2020	620	5240	5258	18
2020/2/27	Mar.2020	622.5	5261	5190	-71
2020/2/27	Apr.2020	622.5	5261	5190	-71
2020/2/27	May.2020	622.5	5261	5190	-71
2020/2/27	Jun.2020	622.5	5261	5276	15
2020/2/27	Jul.2020	630	5323	5276	-47
2020/2/27	Aug.2020	622.5	5261	5276	15
2020/2/28	Mar.2020	625	5276	4948	-328
2020/2/28	Apr.2020	625	5276	4948	-328
2020/2/28	Jul.2020	625	5276	5018	-258
2020/2/28	Aug.2020	625	5276	5018	-258

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/mT）	Duty Paid (RBM/mT)	Qty. （0'000 mT）
2020/2/24	0
2020/2/25	0
2020/2/26	4	Aug	618	5224	48000
2020/2/27	0
2020/2/28	0

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