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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 3/3/2020

2020-03-03 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,455  3,983  150 -678 3,849 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,404  3,983  150 -729 3,873 
Costal Shandong 5,700  2,940  3,406  3,983  150 -727 3,861 
Jiangsu 5,740  2,820  3,318  3,983  150 -815 3,851 
Guangdong 5,980  2,750  3,309  3,983  150 -824 3,793 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,455  3,942  150 -637 3,797 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,404  3,942  150 -688 3,821 
Costal Shandong 5,700  2,940  3,406  3,942  150 -686 3,809 
Jiangsu 5,740  2,820  3,318  3,942  150 -774 3,799 
Guangdong 5,980  2,750  3,309  3,942  150 -783 3,742 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Brazilian Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,512  3,089  150  273  2,644 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,461  3,089  150  222  2,670 
Costal Shandong 5,700  2,940  3,463  3,089  150  224  2,657 
Jiangsu 5,740  2,820  3,376  3,089  150  137  2,647 
Guangdong 5,980  2,750  3,369  3,089  150  130  2,586 
 
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported Argentine Soybean (RMB/tonne, May. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,397  3,020  150  227  2,703 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,348  3,020  150  178  2,725 
Costal Shandong 5,700  2,940  3,349  3,020  150  179  2,714 
Jiangsu 5,740  2,820  3,261  3,020  150  91  2,705 
Guangdong 5,980  2,750  3,249  3,020  150  79  2,650 
 
Crushing Margins for Port Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,426  3,500  150  -224  3,274 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,376  3,500  150  -274  3,297 
Costal Shandong 5,700  2,940  3,377  3,500  150  -273  3,285 
Jiangsu 5,740  2,820  3,290  3,500  150  -360  3,276 
Guangdong 5,980  2,750  3,279  3,500  150  -371  3,220 
 
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,900  3,140  3,456  3,500  160  -204  3,395 
Dalian, Liaoning 5,750  2,990  3,312  3,620  160  -468  3,575 
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,650  2,950  3,264  3,640  160  -536  3,620 
Boxing, Shandong 5,700  2,910  3,240  3,660  160  -580  3,635 
Remarks:
1. Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculated  with the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2. Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate 18-20% and meal 79%;
   Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate 16% and meal 80%.
3. Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4. Soybean Break-even Price is calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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