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Soybean Crushing Margin Estimates in China- 4/3/2020

2020-03-04 www.cofeed.com
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,457 3,979 150 -673 3,841
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,395 3,979 150 -735 3,880
Costal Shandong 5,700 2,940 3,406 3,979 150 -723 3,856
Jiangsu 5,710 2,820 3,313 3,979 150 -816 3,853
Guangdong 5,950 2,750 3,303 3,979 150 -826 3,796
Theoretical Crushing Margins for Imported U.S. PNW Soybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,457 3,938 150 -632 3,789
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,395 3,938 150 -694 3,828
Costal Shandong 5,700 2,940 3,406 3,938 150 -682 3,804
Jiangsu 5,710 2,820 3,313 3,938 150 -775 3,801
Guangdong 5,950 2,750 3,303 3,938 150 -785 3,744
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedBrazilianSoybean (RMB/tonne, Mar. shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,514 3,087 150 277 2,639
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,451 3,087 150 214 2,680
Costal Shandong 5,700 2,940 3,463 3,087 150 226 2,654
Jiangsu 5,710 2,820 3,370 3,087 150 133 2,652
Guangdong 5,950 2,750 3,363 3,087 150 126 2,591
Theoretical Crushing Margins for ImportedArgentineSoybean (RMB/tonne, May.shipment)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,399 3,016 150 233 2,695
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,339 3,016 150 173 2,732
Costal Shandong 5,700 2,940 3,349 3,016 150 183 2,709
Jiangsu 5,710 2,820 3,256 3,016 150 90 2,707
Guangdong 5,950 2,750 3,244 3,016 150 78 2,652
Crushing Margins forPort Distributed Soybean (RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,428 3,500 150 -222 3,271
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,367 3,500 150 -284 3,309
Costal Shandong 5,700 2,940 3,377 3,500 150 -273 3,285
Jiangsu 5,710 2,820 3,284 3,500 150 -366 3,283
Guangdong 5,950 2,750 3,273 3,500 150 -377 3,227
Crushing Margins for Domestic Soybean(RMB/tonne)
Region Income Expenditure Margin Soybean Break-even Price
SB Oil SB Meal Total Soybean Cost Crushing Cost
Heilongjiang 5,910 3,140 3,458 3,500 160 -202 3,393
Dalian, Liaoning 5,760 2,990 3,314 3,620 160 -466 3,573
Qinhuangdao, Hebei 5,600 2,950 3,256 3,640 160 -544 3,630
Boxing, Shandong 5,680 2,920 3,245 3,660 160 -575 3,639
Remarks:
1.Imported Soybean Cost: intraday soybean cost from the United States calculatedwith the CBOT price; Port distributed soybean: subject to prices at Shandong ports; Domestic soybean cost: purchasing price in Heilongjiang+ freight to factory.
2.Imported soybean: Oil extraction rate18-20%and meal 79%;
    Domestic soybean: Oil extraction rate16%and meal 80%.
3.Estimated margins and actual profit in mills may have some differences as mills usually use their inventories or have already locked the cost previously, which may be different from intraday soybean cost on the basis of the CBOT price.
4.Soybean Break-even Priceis calculated with intraday soybean cost and soybean oil price, and when the crush margins is ZERO, then it is soybean break-even price.

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